NHL · Saturday, October 24 at 10:00 PM ET. The market's prices, spread and total for this game — and what they actually mean.
Moneyline — who wins, priced as a probability:
The market makes Wild a slight favorite at 59.5% on the moneyline — 19 points clear of Kraken (40.5%). On Polymarket a price is a probability: a 59.5% price means traders collectively give Wild about a 60-in-100 chance of winning.
The spread market adds the margin: Wild -1.5 — Wild must win by more than 1.5 goals to cover, priced at 36.5% — against Kraken +1.5 at 63.5%. The spread is the market's expected margin in disguise: it expects roughly a 1.5-goals game.
Scoring expectations are set by the total at 6.5 goals: Over is priced at 46.0% and Under at 54.0%, so the market sits balanced — combined scoring is expected to land right around 6.5 goals.
Trading interest is light so far: $10.0K traded against a slate median of $40.7K. Thin markets can move a long way on a single order, so treat the current prices as softer than the big games'. The event carries $478.4K in liquidity.
What the market is saying: Wild should win this more often than not (59.5%), by a margin the spread pegs near 1.5 goals, in a game expected to produce about 6.5 goals of scoring. Those are prices, not promises — the same market has priced bigger favorites wrong before, which is the entire reason the other side has buyers.
See the live Wild vs. Kraken markets on Polymarket →
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