Tonight's pro slate as the prediction market prices it — a preview page for every game, updated every morning.
Prices are probabilities, not predictions from us: a 65% price means the market gives that team about a 65-in-100 chance. Every preview page explains the moneyline, spread and total in plain language using only the market's own numbers.
A sportsbook is a bookmaker: it sets the odds, takes the other side of your bet, and bakes its profit into the price (the "vig" — that's why both sides of a spread bet pay -110). Polymarket is an exchange: you trade against other users through an order book, and nobody sets odds for you. Instead of the vig you pay the gap between the best buy and sell prices — small on liquid championship markets, brutal on niche ones.
Beyond single games like the ones above, the deepest sports liquidity lives in championship winners (Super Bowl, NBA Finals, World Series, Champions League), finals and playoff matchups, and voted awards like MVP — where voters, not stats, decide the outcome, a different kind of uncertainty. And unlike a sportsbook bet, an exchange position can be sold mid-season: buy a team at 12¢ in October, watch them go on a run, sell at 45¢ in January.
On major championships, prediction-market prices and sportsbook futures usually sit close together — both are set by sharp crowds. The gaps appear at the edges: smaller leagues, awards voting, and longshots where the order book is thin. Remember the all-in cost: a 2¢ better price means nothing if the spread and fees eat 4¢ — see the fees guide for the full math.
Sports prices move on a predictable cycle of injuries, results, and narratives: a star quarterback's injury can crater a team's price in minutes, and markets overreact to single games. Favorites bleed slowly over a losing streak; longshots die fast on one bad weekend. Size accordingly — and treat all of it as entertainment with a learning bonus, not income.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.
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