Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 9.5% in 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..? — $15.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
December 31
10%
A 9.5% price implies roughly a 10-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −4.0 pts30D −7.5 pts
Bid
9¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since September 11, 2026: 9.5% – 50.5% · Opened at 50.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?
Category
Oil, Iran, Yemen, close, ships, Houthis, red sea, shipping, Geopolitics, Bab el-Mandeb, Strait of Hormuz
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$15.1K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$14.9K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31 — 9.5%
Resolution source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 9.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -4.0 pts; past month: -7.5 pts.

Since September 11, 2026, December 31 has traded between 9.5% and 50.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 9.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202613.5%
Oct 18, 202613.5%
Oct 19, 202610.5%
Oct 20, 202610.0%
Oct 22, 20269.5%
Oct 23, 20269.5%
Oct 24, 20269.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 9.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3110¢9.5%—$3.8K25.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 9¢ / ask 10¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$15.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,867 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Steep-VisaNo1,867$1.7K
Near-FamiliarYes980$93
Gifted-FractionYes700$66
Witty-BirchNo208$188
Electric-CondominiumYes200$19
Back-PanelYes158$15
Immaterial-StalkNo138$125
Belated-GlueYes127$12
Grim-GarageYes101$10
Rowdy-ShrimpNo60$54

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $120 at 87.0%BUY No — $21 at 88.0%SELL No — $20 at 84.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 21, 07:27 AM ETNoSELL89.0%$13
Oct 19, 01:17 PM ETYesSELL9.0%$0
Oct 19, 01:08 PM ETYesSELL10.0%$3
Oct 19, 01:07 PM ETYesSELL12.0%$4
Oct 19, 01:07 PM ETNoBUY88.0%$18
Oct 19, 01:07 PM ETNoBUY87.0%$120
Oct 19, 01:07 PM ETNoBUY88.0%$18
Oct 19, 01:07 PM ETNoBUY88.0%$21
Oct 19, 01:07 PM ETNoBUY88.0%$18
Oct 19, 01:07 PM ETNoBUY88.0%$18

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 9.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/0-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-on-any-date-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..??

$15.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

What is the most likely outcome of 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 9.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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