As of October 24, 2026, 08:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 9.5% in 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..? — $15.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 9.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -4.0 pts; past month: -7.5 pts.
Since September 11, 2026, December 31 has traded between 9.5% and 50.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 9.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 10.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 10.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 9.5% |
December 31 is favored at 9.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 10¢ | 9.5% | — | $3.8K | 25.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 9¢ / ask 10¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$15.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,867 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steep-Visa | No | 1,867 | $1.7K |
| Near-Familiar | Yes | 980 | $93 |
| Gifted-Fraction | Yes | 700 | $66 |
| Witty-Birch | No | 208 | $188 |
| Electric-Condominium | Yes | 200 | $19 |
| Back-Panel | Yes | 158 | $15 |
| Immaterial-Stalk | No | 138 | $125 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 127 | $12 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 101 | $10 |
| Rowdy-Shrimp | No | 60 | $54 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 07:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $13 |
| Oct 19, 01:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 01:08 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $3 |
| Oct 19, 01:07 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $4 |
| Oct 19, 01:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $18 |
| Oct 19, 01:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $120 |
| Oct 19, 01:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $18 |
| Oct 19, 01:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $21 |
| Oct 19, 01:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $18 |
| Oct 19, 01:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $18 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 9.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/0-ships-transit-bab-el-mandeb-on-any-date-by?via=bro
$15.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
December 31, priced at 9.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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