As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 88.4% in 1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? — $118.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 88.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.0 pts; past week: +10.0 pts; past month: +10.2 pts.
Since January 02, 2026, No has traded between 92.5% and 99.0%. It opened at 95.4% and last traded at 92.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 98.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 92.5% |
No is favored at 88.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 88¢ | 88.4% | -4.0 pts | $118.1K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 12¢ | 11.6% | +4.0 pts | $118.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 20¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 22¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$118.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Resolution source: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,978 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frightening-Undertaker | Yes | 7,978 | $921 |
| Compassionate-Kneejerk | No | 6,616 | $5.9K |
| Faint-Brass | Yes | 802 | $93 |
| Nice-Text | Yes | 621 | $72 |
| Arctic-Kickoff | No | 520 | $460 |
| Pale-Paramecium | Yes | 465 | $54 |
| Pure-Championship | Yes | 459 | $53 |
| Serpentine-Illusion | No | 333 | $295 |
| Corny-Transition | Yes | 332 | $38 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 301 | $35 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 06:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.6% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 05:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.1% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 04:51 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.3% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 04:51 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.9% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 04:13 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.3% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 04:13 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.3% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 04:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.8% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 03:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.8% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 02:28 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.2% | $52 |
| Oct 07, 12:09 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 88.4%. Next is Yes at 11.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/1-megaton-meteor-strike-in-2026?via=bro
$118.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/.
No, priced at 88.4% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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