As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.5% in 100kt meteor strike in 2026? — $9.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.3 pts; past week: +0.2 pts; past month: -0.4 pts.
Since January 02, 2026, No has traded between 86.3% and 97.7%. It opened at 94.0% and last traded at 96.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.1% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.1% |
No is favored at 96.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 96.5% | +0.3 pts | $9.1K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 3.5% | -0.3 pts | $9.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Resolution source: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 619 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frightening-Undertaker | Yes | 619 | $22 |
| Elementary-Salsa | Yes | 399 | $14 |
| Mealy-Hanger | No | 309 | $298 |
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 281 | $271 |
| Punctual-Sand | No | 217 | $210 |
| Bountiful-Enrollment | No | 208 | $201 |
| Thorough-Conclusion | Yes | 158 | $6 |
| Vapid-Anagram | Yes | 145 | $5 |
| Conscious-Epee | Yes | 143 | $5 |
| Incomplete-Elm | Yes | 139 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 02, 04:59 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 02, 02:04 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.1% | $1 |
| Oct 01, 07:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.6% | $100 |
| Sep 19, 10:39 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.3% | $1 |
| Sep 05, 10:13 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.9% | $8 |
| Sep 05, 10:11 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.2% | $6 |
| Sep 05, 10:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.2% | $7 |
| Sep 04, 08:22 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.6% | $2 |
| Sep 03, 11:29 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.6% | $11 |
| Sep 02, 06:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.8% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.5%. Next is Yes at 3.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/100kt-meteor-strike-in-2026?via=bro
$9.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/.
No, priced at 96.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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