As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Other at 45.5% in 2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory — $168.1K traded so far.
Other is favored at 45.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 46¢ | 45.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Democrats 8-10% | 26¢ | 26.0% | +0.5 pts | $17.6K | 10.5% |
| Democrats 10-12% | 26¢ | 25.5% | -0.5 pts | $11.5K | 6.8% |
| Democrats 6-8% | 16¢ | 15.5% | — | $18.1K | 10.8% |
| Democrats 12-14% | 12¢ | 11.8% | -0.4 pts | $7.0K | 4.1% |
| Democrats 4-6% | 6¢ | 6.0% | -0.5 pts | $11.2K | 6.7% |
| Democrats 14-16% | 4¢ | 4.0% | — | $4.8K | 2.9% |
| Democrats 16%+ | 3¢ | 3.2% | — | $5.5K | 3.3% |
| Democrats 0-2% | 3¢ | 3.2% | — | $22.9K | 13.7% |
| Democrats 2-4% | 3¢ | 2.8% | +0.1 pts | $19.3K | 11.5% |
| Republicans 2-4% | 2¢ | 2.2% | — | $31.6K | 18.8% |
| Republicans 0-2% | 2¢ | 2.1% | -0.1 pts | $7.1K | 4.2% |
| Republicans 4-6% | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $6.0K | 3.6% |
| Republicans 6%+ | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $5.6K | 3.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 89¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 90¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$168.1K has been traded on this event in total, $110 of it in the last 24 hours, across 14 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,676 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 4,676 | $2.5K |
| andy29 | Yes | 850 | $387 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 357 | $162 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 329 | $150 |
| Starry-Studio | Yes | 264 | $120 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 262 | $119 |
| Little-Gold | Yes | 250 | $114 |
| Admirable-Trust | Yes | 248 | $113 |
| Giant-Otter-Recruit | Yes | 171 | $78 |
| Tepid-Monopoly | Yes | 169 | $77 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 03:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.3% | $25 |
| Oct 22, 03:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.9% | $19 |
| Oct 22, 02:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.4% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 05:16 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.2% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 10:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.9% | $39 |
| Oct 21, 09:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $9 |
| Oct 21, 09:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.9% | $8 |
| Oct 21, 09:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 09:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 09:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Other at 45.5%. Next is Democrats 8-10% at 26.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224?via=bro
$168.1K in total volume, with $110 traded in the last 24 hours across 14 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Other, priced at 45.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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