As of October 24, 2026, 08:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 115-120m at 29.0% in 2026 Midterms: House Turnout — $38.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 115-120m, is priced at 29.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.0 pts; past month: -4.5 pts.
Since February 20, 2026, 115-120m has traded between 14.5% and 40.5%. It opened at 40.5% and last traded at 29.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 31.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 37.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 29.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 29.0% |
115-120m is favored at 29.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 115-120m | 29¢ | 29.0% | — | $7.1K | 18.7% |
| 110-115m | 19¢ | 19.0% | +0.5 pts | $5.5K | 14.5% |
| 120-125m | 15¢ | 15.0% | +1.5 pts | $11.1K | 29.0% |
| 105-110m | 11¢ | 11.1% | -5.2 pts | $1.1K | 2.9% |
| 130m+ | 10¢ | 10.4% | -2.9 pts | $3.1K | 8.1% |
| 125-130m | 10¢ | 10.0% | +2.5 pts | $5.0K | 13.1% |
| 100-105m | 7¢ | 7.0% | +0.9 pts | $1.3K | 3.5% |
| 95-100m | 1¢ | 1.5% | +0.9 pts | $532 | 1.4% |
| 90-95m | 1¢ | 1.2% | -0.1 pts | $1.9K | 5.0% |
| <85m | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $723 | 1.9% |
| 85-90m | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $719 | 1.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 28¢ / ask 30¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$38.1K has been traded on this event in total, $205 of it in the last 24 hours, across 12 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Resolution source: https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 629 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 629 | $446 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 316 | $92 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 224 | $65 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 216 | $63 |
| Snarling-Inspection-External | Yes | 132 | $38 |
| Known-Use | No | 97 | $69 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | No | 78 | $55 |
| mskl | No | 61 | $43 |
| Personal-Councilman | No | 61 | $43 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 40 | $12 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 04:57 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 04:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $30 |
| Oct 23, 02:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 12:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $23 |
| Oct 23, 08:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 04:45 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 04:22 AM ET | No | SELL | 80.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 04:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 80.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 04:08 AM ET | No | SELL | 80.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 115-120m at 29.0%. Next is 110-115m at 19.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/2026-midterms-house-turnout?via=bro
$38.1K in total volume, with $205 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/.
115-120m, priced at 29.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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