As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Kuomintang (KMT) at 68.5% in 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner — $313.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Kuomintang (KMT), is priced at 68.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +8.0 pts; past month: -20.0 pts.
Since December 04, 2025, Kuomintang (KMT) has traded between 48.5% and 92.5%. It opened at 48.5% and last traded at 68.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 66.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 69.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 68.5% |
Kuomintang (KMT) is favored at 68.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuomintang (KMT) | 68¢ | 68.5% | — | $121.0K | 38.7% |
| Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) | 32¢ | 31.8% | -0.1 pts | $117.2K | 37.4% |
| Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $74.9K | 23.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 67¢ / ask 70¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$313.0K has been traded on this event in total, $40 of it in the last 24 hours, across 30 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://db.cec.gov.tw/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 42,499 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 42,499 | $13.4K |
| Hideous-Racer | Yes | 34,344 | $23.5K |
| Naughty-Usher-Exception | No | 4,125 | $1.3K |
| Silent-Obsidian | Yes | 3,710 | $2.5K |
| Ripe-Cake | Yes | 3,000 | $2.1K |
| Muted-Emphasis | No | 2,251 | $709 |
| Capital-Exchange | No | 1,526 | $481 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 1,308 | $896 |
| Tall-Finer | Yes | 1,112 | $762 |
| Unlined-Marshmallow | Yes | 1,100 | $753 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.1% | $12 |
| Oct 23, 12:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 33.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 12:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.3% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 05:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 01:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 69.0% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 10:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 32.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 10:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 32.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 10:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 32.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 10:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 32.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 10:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 32.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Kuomintang (KMT) at 68.5%. Next is Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) at 31.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/2026-taiwanese-local-elections-party-winner?via=bro
$313.0K in total volume, with $40 traded in the last 24 hours across 30 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://db.cec.gov.tw/.
Kuomintang (KMT), priced at 68.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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