As of October 24, 2026, 06:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 3.1% at 59.0% in 2026 World GDP Growth — $84.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 3.1%, is priced at 59.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.9 pts; past week: +29.2 pts; past month: +29.3 pts.
Since January 23, 2026, 3.1% has traded between 4.2% and 59.2%. It opened at 25.0% and last traded at 59.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 29.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 29.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 29.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 59.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 59.0% |
3.1% is favored at 59.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.1% | 59¢ | 59.0% | +0.9 pts | $23.7K | 28.0% |
| 3.2% | 14¢ | 14.4% | -1.2 pts | $7.0K | 8.3% |
| 3.0% | 14¢ | 13.8% | +0.7 pts | $12.9K | 15.2% |
| 3.6% | 4¢ | 3.6% | — | $1.9K | 2.2% |
| 3.3% | 3¢ | 3.5% | — | $5.4K | 6.4% |
| ≤2.9% | 3¢ | 2.9% | — | $22.1K | 26.1% |
| 3.4% | 2¢ | 2.4% | — | $5.3K | 6.3% |
| 3.5% | 1¢ | 0.9% | +0.2 pts | $4.5K | 5.4% |
| 3.7%+ | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $1.9K | 2.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 58¢ / ask 60¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$84.7K has been traded on this event in total, $374 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,021 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,021 | $830 |
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 1,181 | $696 |
| Reckless-Estrogen-Competence | Yes | 1,018 | $600 |
| Unlined-Pole | No | 454 | $186 |
| Favorable-Academics-Pool | Yes | 398 | $235 |
| Few-Prevention | No | 271 | $111 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 261 | $107 |
| Quizzical-Hire | No | 222 | $91 |
| Legal-Nitrogen | Yes | 190 | $112 |
| Clear-Cut-Tuna | Yes | 165 | $97 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.7% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 08:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 40.4% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 07:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 41.0% | $66 |
| Oct 23, 06:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 41.2% | $17 |
| Oct 23, 05:05 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 55.9% | $21 |
| Oct 23, 05:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 44.2% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 05:04 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 55.8% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 05:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 44.8% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 05:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 58.3% | $495 |
| Oct 23, 11:07 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 59.1% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 3.1% at 59.0%. Next is 3.2% at 14.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/2026-world-gdp-growth?via=bro
$84.7K in total volume, with $374 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo.
3.1%, priced at 59.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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