As of October 24, 2026, 06:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 92.5% in 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? — $595.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is priced at 92.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: -1.1 pts; past month: -0.8 pts.
Since April 22, 2026, Jean-Luc Mélenchon has traded between 74.5% and 97.9%. It opened at 74.5% and last traded at 92.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 93.9% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 93.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 93.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 93.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 92.5% |
Jean-Luc Mélenchon is favored at 92.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 93¢ | 92.5% | +0.1 pts | $28.1K | 4.7% |
| Marine Le Pen | 92¢ | 92.0% | — | $35.5K | 6.0% |
| Fabien Roussel | 86¢ | 86.5% | — | $4.8K | 0.8% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 86¢ | 85.5% | -1.0 pts | $8.3K | 1.4% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 84¢ | 84.0% | — | $30.2K | 5.1% |
| David Lisnard | 80¢ | 80.5% | — | $25.7K | 4.3% |
| Édouard Philippe | 79¢ | 79.0% | -4.0 pts | $22.0K | 3.7% |
| Éric Zemmour | 78¢ | 77.5% | +1.5 pts | $21.1K | 3.5% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 70¢ | 70.0% | -0.5 pts | $3.3K | 0.5% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 53¢ | 53.0% | +0.5 pts | $19.4K | 3.3% |
| Dominique de Villepin | 32¢ | 32.5% | +1.5 pts | $21.8K | 3.7% |
| Marine Tondelier | 28¢ | 28.0% | — | $13.6K | 2.3% |
| François Hollande | 22¢ | 22.5% | +1.0 pts | $44.1K | 7.4% |
| Gabriel Attal | 21¢ | 21.0% | -3.5 pts | $19.0K | 3.2% |
| François Ruffin | 18¢ | 18.5% | -1.0 pts | $3.5K | 0.6% |
| Sarah Knafo | 15¢ | 15.0% | -3.0 pts | $40.8K | 6.8% |
| Jordan Bardella | 12¢ | 11.6% | +4.2 pts | $33.8K | 5.7% |
| François Asselineau | 12¢ | 11.5% | — | $15.6K | 2.6% |
| Delphine Batho | 10¢ | 9.6% | -0.1 pts | $3.2K | 0.5% |
| Élisabeth Borne | 7¢ | 6.9% | +0.1 pts | $2.4K | 0.4% |
| Michel Barnier | 6¢ | 6.3% | — | $3.3K | 0.5% |
| Juan Branco | 6¢ | 6.0% | -0.5 pts | $9.8K | 1.6% |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 6¢ | 5.9% | — | $1.9K | 0.3% |
| Bally Bagayoko | 6¢ | 5.7% | -0.3 pts | $10.8K | 1.8% |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 6¢ | 5.7% | +0.5 pts | $8.6K | 1.4% |
| Matthieu Pigasse | 6¢ | 5.6% | -1.8 pts | $17.5K | 2.9% |
| Michel-Edouard Leclerc | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $11.3K | 1.9% |
| Jean-Michel Fauvergue | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $3.7K | 0.6% |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 5¢ | 5.4% | +0.1 pts | $12.8K | 2.2% |
| Jean Castex | 5¢ | 5.3% | — | $3.9K | 0.7% |
| Olivier Faure | 5¢ | 5.0% | -0.4 pts | $7.5K | 1.3% |
| François Bayrou | 5¢ | 5.0% | -0.1 pts | $5.4K | 0.9% |
| Carole Delga | 5¢ | 5.0% | — | $5.1K | 0.9% |
| Manuel Bompard | 5¢ | 4.9% | — | $4.5K | 0.8% |
| Karim Bouamrane | 5¢ | 4.9% | — | $11.3K | 1.9% |
| Philippe de Villiers | 5¢ | 4.9% | — | $4.4K | 0.7% |
| Mathilde Panot | 4¢ | 4.3% | — | $3.4K | 0.6% |
| Teddy Riner | 4¢ | 4.2% | — | $15.4K | 2.6% |
| Manuel Valls | 4¢ | 4.0% | — | $1.2K | 0.2% |
| Valérie Pécresse | 4¢ | 3.9% | -0.1 pts | $1.4K | 0.2% |
| Jérôme Guedj | 4¢ | 3.8% | -0.1 pts | $8.6K | 1.4% |
| Gérald Darmanin | 4¢ | 3.8% | — | $6.1K | 1.0% |
| Clémentine Autain | 4¢ | 3.5% | +0.5 pts | $2.1K | 0.4% |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 3¢ | 3.4% | — | $21.6K | 3.6% |
| Ségolène Royal | 3¢ | 3.0% | — | $4.9K | 0.8% |
| Xavier Bertrand | 3¢ | 2.6% | -0.7 pts | $12.2K | 2.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 92¢ / ask 93¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$595.3K has been traded on this event in total, $6.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 46 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,000 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mundane-Photography | Yes | 1,000 | $926 |
| Prickly-Offense | Yes | 962 | $890 |
| Nutritious-Palm | No | 800 | $60 |
| Dull-Universe | Yes | 659 | $610 |
| Superior-Format | No | 529 | $39 |
| Pastel-Browser | No | 440 | $33 |
| Prudent-Somersault | No | 364 | $27 |
| Ripe-University | No | 353 | $26 |
| Grateful-Washtub | Yes | 200 | $185 |
| Silky-Equivalent | Yes | 199 | $184 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:54 PM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 03:53 PM ET | No | SELL | 83.0% | $29 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $42 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $44 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 83.7% | $293 |
| Oct 24, 06:08 AM ET | No | SELL | 75.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:08 AM ET | No | SELL | 78.0% | $117 |
| Oct 24, 04:47 AM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $44 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 92.5%. Next is Marine Le Pen at 92.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-the-ballot?via=bro
$595.3K in total volume, with $6.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 46 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, priced at 92.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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