Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

2nd largest private company end of October?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price OpenAI at 97.2% in 2nd largest private company end of October? — $5.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $427.
Leading outcome
OpenAI
97%
A 97.2% price implies roughly a 97-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.2 pts7D +0.5 pts
OpenAI97.2%
Databricks2.7%
Bid
96¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
3¢
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Range since October 01, 2026: 85.5% – 97.2% · Opened at 90.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
2nd largest private company end of October?
Category
OpenAI, Finance, Privates, Anthropic, Recurring
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$5.6K
Volume (24h)
$427
Liquidity
$8.7K
Markets
10
Leading outcome
OpenAI — 97.2%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, OpenAI, is priced at 97.2%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.2 pts; past week: +0.5 pts.

Since October 01, 2026, OpenAI has traded between 85.5% and 97.2%. It opened at 90.0% and last traded at 97.2%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202695.5%
Oct 15, 202695.3%
Oct 16, 202696.8%
Oct 18, 202696.8%
Oct 19, 202696.9%
Oct 20, 202697.0%
Oct 24, 202697.2%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

OpenAI is favored at 97.2%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
OpenAI97¢97.2%+0.2 pts$3.0K53.3%
Databricks3¢2.7%+1.3 pts$4397.9%
Canva2¢2.4%+1.1 pts$3095.6%
Anduril2¢2.2%+0.9 pts$3556.4%
Anthropic1¢1.5%-0.1 pts$3075.5%
Perplexity1¢1.5%+0.1 pts$2835.1%
ByteDance1¢1.3%+0.1 pts$2594.7%
Neuralink0¢0.1%—$2143.9%
Revolut0¢0.1%—$2143.9%
Stripe0¢0.1%—$2143.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$5.6K has been traded on this event in total, $427 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to the listed company with the second largest private market valuation on the last trading day of October 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 329 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No329$9
Ready-JungleYes243$236
Sunny-Osprey-PompomYes120$117
Present-LambkinYes120$117
Verifiable-ObstacleYes103$100
Snappy-RoosterNo100$3
Plastic-LarderYes96$93
Gleaming-HandlebarNo80$2
Belated-GlueNo61$2
Grumpy-InvaderNo50$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $100 at 98.4%BUY No — $99 at 98.9%SELL Yes — $95 at 95.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 09:19 PM ETYesSELL96.0%$16
Oct 23, 09:02 PM ETYesBUY2.5%$0
Oct 23, 08:22 PM ETNoSELL3.8%$1
Oct 23, 08:21 PM ETYesBUY94.2%$19
Oct 23, 08:21 PM ETYesBUY94.2%$19
Oct 23, 08:21 PM ETYesBUY93.9%$28
Oct 23, 08:21 PM ETYesBUY93.7%$28
Oct 23, 08:21 PM ETYesBUY93.7%$28
Oct 23, 08:21 PM ETNoSELL6.3%$1
Oct 23, 08:21 PM ETYesBUY93.7%$19

Related markets

More OpenAI

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of 2nd largest private company end of October??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is OpenAI at 97.2%. Next is Databricks at 2.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/2nd-largest-private-company-end-of-october-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on 2nd largest private company end of October??

$5.6K in total volume, with $427 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.

When does 2nd largest private company end of October? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of 2nd largest private company end of October?, according to Polymarket traders?

OpenAI, priced at 97.2% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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