As of October 24, 2026, 07:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Larry Page at 56.0% in 2nd richest person on December 31? — $48.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Larry Page, is priced at 56.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +5.0 pts; past week: +3.0 pts; past month: +16.5 pts.
Since January 31, 2026, Larry Page has traded between 7.5% and 69.0%. It opened at 25.0% and last traded at 55.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 55.0% |
Larry Page is favored at 56.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Page | 56¢ | 56.0% | +5.0 pts | $21.4K | 44.3% |
| Sergey Brin | 34¢ | 33.8% | -2.1 pts | $8.0K | 16.5% |
| Michael Dell | 24¢ | 24.5% | -4.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Jeff Bezos | 24¢ | 23.8% | -2.9 pts | $10.1K | 21.0% |
| Steve Ballmer | 23¢ | 22.7% | -1.8 pts | $1.3K | 2.7% |
| Jensen Huang | 22¢ | 22.2% | -2.8 pts | $1.5K | 3.2% |
| Warren Buffett | 22¢ | 21.9% | +1.8 pts | $2.0K | 4.2% |
| Bernard Arnault | 12¢ | 11.8% | +0.1 pts | $1.1K | 2.2% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 10¢ | 9.9% | +6.1 pts | $728 | 1.5% |
| Larry Ellison | 3¢ | 2.6% | — | $1.1K | 2.3% |
| Elon Musk | 1¢ | 0.8% | +0.1 pts | $1.0K | 2.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 36¢ (bid 38¢ / ask 74¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$48.4K has been traded on this event in total, $16 of it in the last 24 hours, across 37 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 02, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #2 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Resolution source: https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,056 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,056 | $465 |
| Soggy-Brilliant | Yes | 659 | $369 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 347 | $194 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 39 | $17 |
| These-Characterization | Yes | 38 | $21 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 35 | $20 |
| Ill-Informed-Plagiarism | Yes | 21 | $12 |
| Attentive-Crewman | No | 20 | $9 |
| Frail-Prayer | No | 11 | $5 |
| Lovely-Motion | Yes | 9 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.2% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 08:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 51.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 03:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 33.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 12:56 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 07:06 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.9% | $0 |
| Oct 18, 09:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.8% | $6 |
| Oct 18, 12:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.9% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 08:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.4% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 02:04 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.1% | $1 |
| Oct 09, 03:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.5% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Larry Page at 56.0%. Next is Sergey Brin at 33.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/2nd-richest-person-on-december-31?via=bro
$48.4K in total volume, with $16 traded in the last 24 hours across 37 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 02, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/.
Larry Page, priced at 56.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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