As of October 24, 2026, 08:04 PM ET, Polymarket traders price OpenAI at 98.5% in #3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 19? — $35.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, OpenAI, is priced at 98.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +10.0 pts.
Since October 19, 2026, OpenAI has traded between 42.0% and 98.7%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 98.7%.
OpenAI is favored at 98.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 98¢ | 98.5% | +10.0 pts | $13.0K | 37.0% |
| AI lab F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| AI lab G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| 2¢ | 1.7% | -10.3 pts | $11.2K | 32.0% | |
| Qwen | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $1.6K | 4.4% |
| DeepSeek | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.1K | 3.0% |
| MiniMax | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.0K | 2.9% |
| Tencent | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $374 | 1.1% |
| Z.ai | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.8K | 5.2% |
| Xiaomi | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.2K | 3.5% |
| Nvidia | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $460 | 1.3% |
| Anthropic | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.4K | 3.9% |
| Meta | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.0K | 2.9% |
| xAI | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $940 | 2.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 98¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$35.2K has been traded on this event in total, $4.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 15 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 30, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://openrouter.ai/rankings
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,317 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 3,317 | $51 |
| Plaintive-Agreement | Yes | 3,002 | $3.0K |
| Piercing-Formation | Yes | 1,096 | $1.1K |
| Belated-Glue | No | 293 | $5 |
| Scary-Cardboard | Yes | 257 | $253 |
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 248 | $244 |
| Sparse-Cookie | No | 174 | $3 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 141 | $2 |
| Our-Sherry | Yes | 119 | $117 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 117 | $115 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 93.8% | $47 |
| Oct 24, 05:14 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.0% | $86 |
| Oct 24, 05:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 04:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is OpenAI at 98.5%. Next is AI lab F at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/3rd-ai-lab-by-openrouter-market-share-week-of-october-19?via=bro
$35.2K in total volume, with $4.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 15 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
OpenAI, priced at 98.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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