As of October 24, 2026, 08:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ByteDance at 98.5% in 3rd largest private company end of October? — $18.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ByteDance, is priced at 98.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: +0.2 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, ByteDance has traded between 77.5% and 98.5%. It opened at 77.5% and last traded at 98.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.1% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.5% |
ByteDance is favored at 98.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ByteDance | 98¢ | 98.5% | +0.1 pts | $14.9K | 79.1% |
| Perplexity | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $259 | 1.4% |
| Stripe | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $372 | 2.0% |
| Anduril | 0¢ | 0.5% | +0.4 pts | $601 | 3.2% |
| Canva | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.3 pts | $492 | 2.6% |
| Revolut | 0¢ | 0.4% | +0.2 pts | $472 | 2.5% |
| Anthropic | 0¢ | 0.2% | +0.1 pts | $462 | 2.4% |
| OpenAI | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $432 | 2.3% |
| Neuralink | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $432 | 2.3% |
| Databricks | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $432 | 2.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 98¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$18.9K has been traded on this event in total, $56 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the third largest private market valuation on the last trading day of October 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,680 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silver-Eyebrows-Instruction | Yes | 1,680 | $1.7K |
| Plastic-Larder | Yes | 1,228 | $1.2K |
| Untimely-Charge | No | 548 | $8 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 540 | $8 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 385 | $6 |
| Hideous-Racer | No | 350 | $5 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 321 | $5 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 294 | $5 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 204 | $3 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 200 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.8% | $56 |
| Oct 19, 01:45 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 11:49 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 08:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 2.3% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 08:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $50 |
| Oct 15, 06:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 1.0% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 05:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $50 |
| Oct 15, 05:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 1.5% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 05:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 1.5% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 05:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.6% | $48 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is ByteDance at 98.5%. Next is Perplexity at 0.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/3rd-largest-private-company-end-of-october-2026?via=bro
$18.9K in total volume, with $56 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
ByteDance, priced at 98.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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