As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.9% in Abiy Ahmed out as Prime Minister of Ethiopia in 2026? — $13.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.3 pts; past week: -1.4 pts; past month: -5.4 pts.
Since September 24, 2026, No has traded between 86.5% and 96.0%. It opened at 86.5% and last traded at 95.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.6% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.7% |
No is favored at 95.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 95.9% | +0.3 pts | $13.1K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 4.1% | -0.3 pts | $13.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$13.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abiy Ahmed ceases to be Prime Minister of Ethiopia for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Abiy Ahmed's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Abiy Ahmed and the government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 451 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uniform-Botany | Yes | 451 | $18 |
| Mellow-Settlement | No | 280 | $269 |
| 0xf040b361… | No | 108 | $104 |
| Dull-Universe | No | 91 | $88 |
| Linear-Leaver | No | 45 | $43 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 42 | $2 |
| Tricky-Usher | No | 23 | $22 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 20 | $1 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 17 | $1 |
| Punctual-Banquette | Yes | 14 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 03:38 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $10 |
| Oct 18, 06:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 06:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $5 |
| Oct 10, 06:53 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 10, 06:53 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $10 |
| Oct 07, 10:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 07, 10:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.0% | $0 |
| Oct 07, 10:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 07, 10:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $0 |
| Oct 07, 10:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.9%. Next is Yes at 4.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/abiy-ahmed-out-as-prime-minister-of-ethiopia-in-2026?via=bro
$13.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 95.9% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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