As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Not Extended & Democratic Party at 92.0% in ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026? — $409.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Not Extended & Democratic Party, is priced at 92.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +0.5 pts; past month: -1.5 pts.
Since December 09, 2025, Not Extended & Democratic Party has traded between 40.5% and 94.0%. It opened at 40.5% and last traded at 92.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 92.0% |
Not Extended & Democratic Party is favored at 92.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not Extended & Democratic Party | 92¢ | 92.0% | +0.5 pts | $44.2K | 10.8% |
| Not Extended & Republican Party | 8¢ | 8.0% | — | $36.4K | 8.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 91¢ / ask 93¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$409.8K has been traded on this event in total, $18 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether enhanced ACA premium tax credits will be extended in 2025 (https://polymarket.com/event/enhanced-aca-premium-tax-credits-extended-in-2025?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?). The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025? Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government. This market will resolve according to whether a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits that have wider eligibility and/or lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025. A bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 9,099 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 9,099 | $728 |
| Stained-Cynic | Yes | 5,162 | $4.7K |
| Oval-Counseling | Yes | 976 | $898 |
| Lone-Glutamate | Yes | 800 | $736 |
| Rundown-Regard | No | 611 | $49 |
| Expert-Conversion | Yes | 543 | $500 |
| Hard-Density | No | 461 | $37 |
| Sugary-Concentration | Yes | 424 | $390 |
| Silky-Geometry | Yes | 401 | $369 |
| Serpentine-Illusion | Yes | 326 | $300 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 09:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 09:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 08:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 07:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 07:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 07:00 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:09 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.7% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 12:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Not Extended & Democratic Party at 92.0%. Next is Not Extended & Republican Party at 8.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/aca-credits-extended-house-winner-2026?via=bro
$409.8K in total volume, with $18 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Not Extended & Democratic Party, priced at 92.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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