As of October 24, 2026, 08:11 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.0% in Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? — $24.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.4 pts; past month: -0.4 pts.
Since April 11, 2026, No has traded between 92.8% and 98.9%. It opened at 95.2% and last traded at 98.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.6% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.0% |
No is favored at 98.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.0% | — | $24.1K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 2.0% | — | $24.1K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$24.1K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam Back was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,601 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uniform-Singular | Yes | 2,601 | $52 |
| Peppery-Capital | No | 527 | $517 |
| Content-Inside | No | 447 | $438 |
| Awful-Appeal-Cultivator | No | 399 | $391 |
| Lovable-Hutch | No | 380 | $372 |
| Woeful-Cloudburst | No | 300 | $294 |
| 0x51b5a0c12bf89886c79723a0a5cec00404772ef4 | No | 295 | $289 |
| Near-Epauliere | No | 250 | $245 |
| Ultimate-Sprat | No | 209 | $205 |
| Giddy-Heater | Yes | 197 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 06:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $288 |
| Oct 18, 09:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.6% | $437 |
| Oct 18, 12:19 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.5% | $292 |
| Oct 14, 12:19 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.5% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 12:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.6% | $15 |
| Sep 30, 06:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.6% | $1 |
| Sep 25, 03:53 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.4% | $1 |
| Sep 19, 12:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.5% | $1 |
| Sep 12, 05:40 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.5% | $1 |
| Sep 12, 01:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.6% | $100 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.0%. Next is Yes at 2.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/adam-back-confirmed-to-be-satoshi-by-december-31?via=bro
$24.1K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 98.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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