Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

AI bubble burst by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:25 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027 at 23.0% in AI bubble burst by...? — $3.12M traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $2.5K.
Leading outcome
June 30, 2027
23%
A 23.0% price implies roughly a 23-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +2.0 pts7D +7.0 pts30D +2.5 pts
June 30, 202723.0%
December 31, 20269.2%
Bid
22¢
Ask
24¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since September 22, 2026: 15.5% – 23.5% · Opened at 20.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
AI bubble burst by...?
Category
Business, Tech, Finance, Big Tech
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$3.12M
Volume (24h)
$2.5K
Liquidity
$51.8K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
June 30, 2027 — 23.0%
Resolution source
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, June 30, 2027, is priced at 23.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.0 pts; past week: +7.0 pts; past month: +2.5 pts.

Since September 22, 2026, June 30, 2027 has traded between 15.5% and 23.5%. It opened at 20.5% and last traded at 23.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202618.5%
Oct 16, 202618.5%
Oct 18, 202616.5%
Oct 19, 202619.5%
Oct 20, 202621.0%
Oct 23, 202621.0%
Oct 24, 202623.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

June 30, 2027 is favored at 23.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
June 30, 202723¢23.0%+2.0 pts$37.6K1.2%
December 31, 20269¢9.2%-0.1 pts$2.50M80.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 22¢ / ask 24¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$3.12M has been traded on this event in total, $2.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,789 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Violet-EmbellishmentYes2,789$641
Tricky-RazorNo1,908$1.5K
Pure-ThreatNo1,600$1.2K
Unlined-PoleNo1,597$1.2K
Qualified-HypothermiaYes1,184$272
Gregarious-Fraction-LionYes811$186
OndraYes724$167
0xc93698a4…Yes640$147
Hideous-RacerNo584$450
Low-JugNo500$385

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $1.1K at 90.1%SELL No — $1.1K at 90.0%BUY No — $588 at 90.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:26 PM ETYesBUY9.8%$2
Oct 24, 02:05 PM ETNoBUY90.5%$11
Oct 24, 10:13 AM ETYesBUY23.0%$3
Oct 24, 08:30 AM ETYesSELL20.0%$3
Oct 24, 06:28 AM ETYesBUY23.0%$3
Oct 24, 06:28 AM ETYesBUY22.0%$96
Oct 24, 06:28 AM ETYesBUY23.0%$7
Oct 24, 06:28 AM ETYesBUY22.4%$36
Oct 24, 06:28 AM ETYesBUY23.0%$5
Oct 24, 06:28 AM ETYesBUY23.0%$19

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of AI bubble burst by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 23.0%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 9.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ai-bubble-burst-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on AI bubble burst by...??

$3.12M in total volume, with $2.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does AI bubble burst by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.

What is the most likely outcome of AI bubble burst by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

June 30, 2027, priced at 23.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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