As of October 24, 2026, 06:25 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027 at 23.0% in AI bubble burst by...? — $3.12M traded so far.
The leading outcome, June 30, 2027, is priced at 23.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.0 pts; past week: +7.0 pts; past month: +2.5 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, June 30, 2027 has traded between 15.5% and 23.5%. It opened at 20.5% and last traded at 23.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 18.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 18.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 21.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 21.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 23.0% |
June 30, 2027 is favored at 23.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 23¢ | 23.0% | +2.0 pts | $37.6K | 1.2% |
| December 31, 2026 | 9¢ | 9.2% | -0.1 pts | $2.50M | 80.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 22¢ / ask 24¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.12M has been traded on this event in total, $2.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,789 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Violet-Embellishment | Yes | 2,789 | $641 |
| Tricky-Razor | No | 1,908 | $1.5K |
| Pure-Threat | No | 1,600 | $1.2K |
| Unlined-Pole | No | 1,597 | $1.2K |
| Qualified-Hypothermia | Yes | 1,184 | $272 |
| Gregarious-Fraction-Lion | Yes | 811 | $186 |
| Ondra | Yes | 724 | $167 |
| 0xc93698a4… | Yes | 640 | $147 |
| Hideous-Racer | No | 584 | $450 |
| Low-Jug | No | 500 | $385 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.8% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.5% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 10:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 08:30 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $96 |
| Oct 24, 06:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 06:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.4% | $36 |
| Oct 24, 06:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 06:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $19 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 23.0%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 9.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ai-bubble-burst-by?via=bro
$3.12M in total volume, with $2.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
June 30, 2027, priced at 23.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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