As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 63.5% in AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...? — $475.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 63.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -12.0 pts.
Since September 08, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 61.5% and 86.5%. It opened at 74.5% and last traded at 63.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 61.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 64.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 63.5% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 63.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 64¢ | 63.5% | -1.5 pts | $101.7K | 21.4% |
| December 31, 2026 | 20¢ | 20.5% | -2.0 pts | $227.8K | 47.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 63¢ / ask 64¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$475.8K has been traded on this event in total, $318 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab, or an official representative of an eligible AI lab, announces that the lab has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,864 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Key-Sovereignty | No | 6,864 | $2.5K |
| Brown-Tragedy | No | 5,818 | $2.1K |
| Villainous-Volatility | Yes | 4,155 | $2.6K |
| Enchanting-Texture | No | 4,004 | $1.5K |
| Cuddly-Pillar | No | 3,916 | $1.4K |
| Grubby-Chandelier | Yes | 3,382 | $2.1K |
| Empty-Avenue | Yes | 3,082 | $2.0K |
| Wobbly-Chain | No | 3,041 | $1.1K |
| Right-Destination | Yes | 2,645 | $1.7K |
| Better-Smith | Yes | 2,500 | $1.6K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 64.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 01:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 64.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 11:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 79.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 11:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 64.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 11:22 AM ET | No | SELL | 78.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 11:22 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 64.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 11:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $118 |
| Oct 24, 11:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 36.0% | $72 |
| Oct 24, 11:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 36.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 11:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 63.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 20.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ai-lab-announces-another-millennium-prize-solution-by?via=bro
$475.8K in total volume, with $318 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/.
December 31, 2027, priced at 63.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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