As of October 24, 2026, 08:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.5% in AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? — $41.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.2 pts; past month: -0.2 pts.
Since November 12, 2025, No has traded between 10.5% and 98.2%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 94.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.3% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.3% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.5% |
No is favored at 94.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 94.5% | — | $41.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 5.5% | — | $41.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$41.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Resolution source: https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,069 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Creamy-Infarction | Yes | 2,069 | $113 |
| Wobbly-Chain | No | 2,051 | $1.9K |
| Diligent-Scenario | No | 1,826 | $1.7K |
| Modest-Tell | Yes | 1,176 | $64 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | No | 1,031 | $975 |
| Prickly-Cloister | No | 562 | $532 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 459 | $25 |
| Golden-Unemployment | Yes | 406 | $22 |
| Charming-Grape | Yes | 363 | $20 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 362 | $20 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 08:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.9% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 02:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.5% | $293 |
| Oct 19, 02:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.7% | $6 |
| Oct 05, 10:38 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.3% | $94 |
| Oct 04, 11:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.6% | $2 |
| Oct 02, 11:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.4% | $47 |
| Oct 02, 09:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.6% | $6 |
| Oct 02, 09:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.6% | $0 |
| Oct 02, 09:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.4% | $38 |
| Oct 02, 09:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.3% | $38 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.5%. Next is Yes at 5.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal-in-2026?via=bro
$41.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/.
No, priced at 94.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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