Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

AK-AL House Election Winner

As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Republican Party at 78.0% in AK-AL House Election Winner — $66.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $2.1K.
Leading outcome
Republican Party
78%
A 78.0% price implies roughly a 78-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +2.0 pts7D −8.0 pts30D −7.5 pts
Republican Party78.0%
Bill Hill19.2%
Bid
76¢
Ask
80¢
Spread
4¢
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Range since January 27, 2026: 66.0% – 91.5% · Opened at 81.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
AK-AL House Election Winner
Category
Politics, Elections, Nov 4 Elections, House Elections, Midterms, Alaska Midterm, US Election, Key House Races, Tossup House Races
Scheduled end
November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$66.2K
Volume (24h)
$2.1K
Liquidity
$98.5K
Markets
8
Leading outcome
Republican Party — 78.0%
Resolution source
https://www.fec.gov/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Republican Party, is priced at 78.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.0 pts; past week: -8.0 pts; past month: -7.5 pts.

Since January 27, 2026, Republican Party has traded between 66.0% and 91.5%. It opened at 81.5% and last traded at 78.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202684.0%
Oct 18, 202685.5%
Oct 19, 202685.5%
Oct 20, 202684.5%
Oct 22, 202679.0%
Oct 23, 202676.0%
Oct 24, 202678.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Republican Party is favored at 78.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Republican Party78¢78.0%+2.0 pts$25.6K38.6%
Bill Hill19¢19.2%-2.4 pts$3.2K4.8%
Democratic Party3¢2.5%-0.1 pts$36.6K55.3%
Jim McDermott0¢0.2%—$7861.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 76¢ / ask 80¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$66.2K has been traded on this event in total, $2.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources, except if that candidate is a listed option. Candidates who are listed options will not be considered to represent any party for purposes of this market, regardless of any subsequent caucus decision. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Resolution source: https://www.fec.gov/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,135 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No2,135$470
True-GrandparentNo1,665$366
Each-SummaryYes1,185$924
Prickly-EyrieYes1,066$832
Odd-RelishYes1,000$780
Insubstantial-Hurry-BronchitisYes955$745
Experienced-Smell-RailroadNo833$183
Little-GoldNo815$179
Stiff-NightgownYes690$538
Natural-EnterpriseYes544$424

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $736 at 73.5%BUY Yes — $196 at 78.5%BUY No — $123 at 99.2%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:57 AM ETYesBUY79.0%$1
Oct 23, 11:53 PM ETNoBUY98.9%$20
Oct 23, 11:53 PM ETNoSELL19.0%$4
Oct 23, 11:53 PM ETNoBUY81.8%$16
Oct 23, 11:53 PM ETNoBUY99.2%$18
Oct 23, 11:53 PM ETYesBUY78.5%$196
Oct 23, 11:53 PM ETNoBUY80.1%$15
Oct 23, 11:53 PM ETYesBUY18.9%$3
Oct 23, 11:53 PM ETNoBUY99.2%$20
Oct 23, 11:53 PM ETNoBUY99.2%$30

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of AK-AL House Election Winner?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Republican Party at 78.0%. Next is Bill Hill at 19.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ak-al-house-election-winner?via=bro

How much money has been traded on AK-AL House Election Winner?

$66.2K in total volume, with $2.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.

When does AK-AL House Election Winner end?

The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.fec.gov/.

What is the most likely outcome of AK-AL House Election Winner, according to Polymarket traders?

Republican Party, priced at 78.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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