As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 86.4% in Alaska Governor Election Winner — $1.66M traded so far.
The leading outcome, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, is priced at 86.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.9 pts; past week: +7.8 pts; past month: +9.6 pts.
Since April 04, 2026, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins has traded between 2.1% and 84.8%. It opened at 12.0% and last traded at 79.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 78.8% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 76.6% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 77.1% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 78.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 79.0% |
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is favored at 86.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 86¢ | 86.4% | +0.9 pts | $222.2K | 13.4% |
| Bernadette Wilson | 13¢ | 13.0% | -1.5 pts | $256.3K | 15.5% |
| David Bronson | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $56.6K | 3.4% |
| Click Bishop | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $35.4K | 2.1% |
| Adam Crum | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $52.2K | 3.2% |
| Nancy Dahlstrom | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $133.0K | 8.0% |
| Edna DeVries | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $29.5K | 1.8% |
| Matt Heilala | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $43.1K | 2.6% |
| Shelley Hughes | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $17.2K | 1.0% |
| James Parkin | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $117.7K | 7.1% |
| Treg Taylor | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $63.7K | 3.8% |
| Lisa Murkowski | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $28.4K | 1.7% |
| Tom Begich | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $174.1K | 10.5% |
| Mary Peltola | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $342.8K | 20.7% |
| Hank Kroll | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $20.4K | 1.2% |
| Bruce Walden | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $13.1K | 0.8% |
| Matt Claman | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $21.3K | 1.3% |
| Lesil McGuire | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $6.5K | 0.4% |
| Gregg Brelsford | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $3.9K | 0.2% |
| Jessica Faircloth | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $4.3K | 0.3% |
| Destry J. Payne Sr. | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $3.8K | 0.2% |
| Bill Walker | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $10.2K | 0.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 86¢ / ask 87¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.66M has been traded on this event in total, $2.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 40 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 46,411 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lively-Provider | No | 46,411 | $6.3K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 37,807 | $5.1K |
| Impassioned-Watch | Yes | 32,449 | $28.0K |
| Whimsical-Terminal | No | 8,013 | $1.1K |
| Closed-Barracks | Yes | 8,000 | $6.9K |
| Powerful-Election | Yes | 7,161 | $6.2K |
| Junior-Case | Yes | 4,000 | $3.5K |
| Scared-Administrator | Yes | 3,660 | $3.2K |
| Dearest-Agenda | Yes | 3,367 | $2.9K |
| 0x6b25c5c4… | No | 3,108 | $423 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 13.6% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 01:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 10:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 86.4% | $2.0K |
| Oct 24, 09:13 AM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 03:55 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 85.2% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:14 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 86.4% | $100 |
| Oct 24, 01:25 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 86.0% | $39 |
| Oct 24, 01:04 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 85.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 11:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 86.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 09:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 85.1% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 86.4%. Next is Bernadette Wilson at 13.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/alaska-governor-election-winner?via=bro
$1.66M in total volume, with $2.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 40 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, priced at 86.4% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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