As of October 24, 2026, 09:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 92.8% in Alcatraz reopened in 2026? — $1.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 92.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.0 pts; past week: -7.4 pts; past month: +5.0 pts.
Since April 08, 2026, No has traded between 49.8% and 98.2%. It opened at 90.5% and last traded at 92.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 84.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 85.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 49.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 90.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 87.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 92.8% |
No is favored at 92.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 93¢ | 92.8% | +5.0 pts | $1.5K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 7¢ | 7.2% | -5.0 pts | $1.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 253 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compassionate-Kneejerk | No | 253 | $235 |
| Tedious-Tumbler | No | 236 | $219 |
| 0x9af06e2b… | Yes | 145 | $11 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 125 | $9 |
| Fresh-Treatment | Yes | 99 | $7 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 60 | $4 |
| Punctual-Sand | No | 35 | $33 |
| Practical-Cow | No | 29 | $27 |
| Rowdy-Tenement | Yes | 29 | $2 |
| Canine-Tophat | Yes | 27 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 05:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 84.2% | $34 |
| Oct 21, 04:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 87.8% | $35 |
| Oct 20, 02:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 02:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $8 |
| Oct 15, 02:09 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.0% | $10 |
| Aug 07, 11:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.7% | $0 |
| Aug 05, 05:25 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.9% | $0 |
| Jul 16, 06:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $28 |
| Jun 26, 03:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $9 |
| Jun 26, 03:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 92.8%. Next is Yes at 7.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/alcatraz-reopened-in-2026?via=bro
$1.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 92.8% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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