As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 79.0% in Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? — $243.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 79.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.5 pts; past week: -9.5 pts; past month: +2.5 pts.
Since March 09, 2026, No has traded between 62.5% and 94.5%. It opened at 73.5% and last traded at 83.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 69.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 83.5% |
No is favored at 79.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 79¢ | 79.0% | -4.5 pts | $243.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 21¢ | 21.0% | +4.5 pts | $243.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 22¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$243.3K has been traded on this event in total, $3.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 39,716 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opulent-Sentencing | Yes | 39,716 | $8.3K |
| Overcooked-Almond | No | 17,704 | $14.0K |
| Numb-Mantle-Reader | No | 9,767 | $7.7K |
| Sad-Electronics | Yes | 5,606 | $1.2K |
| Likely-Fugato | No | 5,454 | $4.3K |
| Cooperative-Bladder | No | 3,629 | $2.9K |
| Sizzling-Investigator-Shield | No | 3,000 | $2.4K |
| Sticky-Tabernacle-Nursery | No | 2,951 | $2.3K |
| Villainous-Crook | No | 2,768 | $2.2K |
| Fickle-Want | Yes | 2,726 | $573 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:59 PM ET | No | SELL | 79.0% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 12:04 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 11:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $126 |
| Oct 24, 11:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 11:09 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $404 |
| Oct 24, 10:57 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 10:54 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 17.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 83.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 79.0%. Next is Yes at 21.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/alexandre-de-moraes-out-as-brazil-supreme-court-justice?via=bro
$243.3K in total volume, with $3.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 79.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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