As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $180 billion at 96.2% in Amazon 2026 capex above ___? — $26.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, $180 billion, is priced at 96.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: +1.6 pts; past month: +0.2 pts.
Since April 23, 2026, $180 billion has traded between 49.5% and 98.2%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 96.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.2% |
$180 billion is favored at 96.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $180 billion | 96¢ | 96.2% | -0.1 pts | $7.2K | 27.4% |
| $190 billion | 96¢ | 96.0% | -0.7 pts | $5.9K | 22.5% |
| $170 billion | 94¢ | 94.3% | -0.9 pts | $1.5K | 5.5% |
| $200 billion | 92¢ | 92.0% | — | $5.6K | 21.2% |
| $210 billion | 78¢ | 78.5% | — | $3.0K | 11.5% |
| $220 billion | 41¢ | 41.0% | +4.0 pts | $3.1K | 11.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 94¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$26.4K has been traded on this event in total, $30 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Amazon's Purchases of Property and Equipment (capital expenditures) for the full year of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified period are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026 by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Amazon's official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings (including the Annual Report on Form 10-K). If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 316 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed-Eaglet | Yes | 316 | $304 |
| Teeming-Puppet | Yes | 240 | $231 |
| Evil-Row | No | 219 | $8 |
| Bouncy-Saving | No | 174 | $7 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 169 | $6 |
| x26 | Yes | 93 | $90 |
| Imaginative-Shoes | No | 80 | $3 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 68 | $3 |
| Useless-Smoking | Yes | 55 | $53 |
| Black-And-White-Insert | Yes | 50 | $48 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:24 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 96.1% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 12:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 4.4% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 07:46 AM ET | No | SELL | 4.6% | $2 |
| Oct 16, 01:13 AM ET | No | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 07:02 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 94.0% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 06:55 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 94.0% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 03:48 PM ET | No | SELL | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 03:47 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.6% | $10 |
| Oct 14, 03:47 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 95.9% | $19 |
| Oct 14, 03:47 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 92.8% | $19 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is $180 billion at 96.2%. Next is $190 billion at 96.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/amazon-2026-capex-above?via=bro
$26.4K in total volume, with $30 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
$180 billion, priced at 96.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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