As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $2.50-$3.00T at 44.5% in Amazon’s Market Cap end of 2026? — $28.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, $2.50-$3.00T, is priced at 44.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +2.0 pts; past month: +8.5 pts.
Since August 05, 2026, $2.50-$3.00T has traded between 22.5% and 56.0%. It opened at 36.5% and last traded at 45.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 45.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 42.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 49.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 42.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 45.0% |
$2.50-$3.00T is favored at 44.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2.50-$3.00T | 44¢ | 44.5% | -0.5 pts | $14.1K | 49.1% |
| $2.00-$2.50T | 30¢ | 29.5% | +16.5 pts | $5.9K | 20.6% |
| $3.00-$3.50T | 14¢ | 14.5% | -13.5 pts | $6.3K | 21.8% |
| <$2.00T | 6¢ | 5.5% | -4.6 pts | $583 | 2.0% |
| $3.50-$4.00T | 5¢ | 4.8% | -0.7 pts | $911 | 3.2% |
| $4.50T+ | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $470 | 1.6% |
| $4.00-$4.50T | 0¢ | 0.4% | -2.5 pts | $485 | 1.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 44¢ / ask 45¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$28.8K has been traded on this event in total, $1.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,019 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empty-Addiction | Yes | 1,019 | $454 |
| Neighboring-Eyebrows | No | 996 | $553 |
| Rubbery-Churn | Yes | 554 | $247 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 518 | $287 |
| Amazing-Antelope-Shakedown | No | 120 | $67 |
| Charming-Grape | Yes | 112 | $50 |
| Nifty-Dilapidation | Yes | 100 | $44 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 73 | $40 |
| Spicy-Retreat | No | 41 | $23 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 39 | $22 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:54 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:54 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 02:54 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 12:48 PM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 12:48 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:43 AM ET | No | BUY | 56.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 11:43 AM ET | No | BUY | 55.0% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 05:42 AM ET | No | SELL | 74.0% | $15 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is $2.50-$3.00T at 44.5%. Next is $2.00-$2.50T at 29.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/amazons-market-cap-end-of-2026?via=bro
$28.8K in total volume, with $1.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
$2.50-$3.00T, priced at 44.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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