As of October 24, 2026, 07:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 8.5% in Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...? — $49.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 8.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.0 pts; past week: -5.0 pts; past month: -4.0 pts.
Since August 20, 2026, October 31 has traded between 6.5% and 56.0%. It opened at 56.0% and last traded at 6.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 6.5% |
October 31 is favored at 8.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 8¢ | 8.5% | +4.0 pts | $7.8K | 15.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 10¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$49.8K has been traded on this event in total, $122 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 448 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dapper-Baseball | No | 448 | $410 |
| Best-Dot | Yes | 300 | $26 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 244 | $21 |
| baybug | No | 165 | $151 |
| Silver-Astronomy | No | 133 | $121 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 129 | $11 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 118 | $10 |
| Fruitful-Succotash | No | 117 | $107 |
| Bitter-Cartoon | No | 100 | $92 |
| Limp-Drawer | Yes | 96 | $8 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:33 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 05:50 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $17 |
| Oct 23, 08:15 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $77 |
| Oct 22, 02:03 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $50 |
| Oct 21, 07:22 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $41 |
| Oct 21, 07:22 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $9 |
| Oct 21, 07:22 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $93 |
| Oct 21, 04:22 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $3 |
| Oct 20, 11:05 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 09:44 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 8.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/another-iranian-diplomat-expelled-byptptpt?via=bro
$49.8K in total volume, with $122 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
October 31, priced at 8.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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