As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 23.5% in Another NATO article 4 by...? — $188.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 23.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.0 pts; past week: -6.0 pts; past month: -35.5 pts.
Since July 26, 2026, December 31 has traded between 23.5% and 59.0%. It opened at 56.5% and last traded at 23.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 31.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 25.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 23.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 23.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 23.5% |
December 31 is favored at 23.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 24¢ | 23.5% | -5.0 pts | $16.6K | 8.8% |
| October 31 | 3¢ | 3.2% | +0.1 pts | $26.6K | 14.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 23¢ / ask 24¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$188.8K has been traded on this event in total, $87 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,000 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weird-Freedom | No | 1,000 | $765 |
| Leafy-Carotene | No | 769 | $588 |
| Sudden-Automaton-Chronicle | Yes | 720 | $169 |
| Narrow-Fiesta | Yes | 571 | $134 |
| Electric-Architect | Yes | 547 | $129 |
| Bitter-Cartoon | No | 547 | $418 |
| Inferior-Widow | Yes | 333 | $78 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 316 | $74 |
| Impish-Cupola | Yes | 279 | $66 |
| Unsung-Climb | Yes | 258 | $61 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 73.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 12:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 08:13 AM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 03:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $18 |
| Oct 23, 03:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $30 |
| Oct 23, 02:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 71.0% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 02:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 02:06 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.2% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 02:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 02:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 23.5%. Next is October 31 at 3.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/another-nato-article-4-byptptpt-20260726214235871?via=bro
$188.8K in total volume, with $87 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 23.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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