As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Shutdown & Democratic Party at 92.0% in Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026? — $363.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Shutdown & Democratic Party, is priced at 92.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.4 pts; past week: +1.6 pts; past month: -1.1 pts.
Since December 09, 2025, Shutdown & Democratic Party has traded between 4.2% and 94.7%. It opened at 21.0% and last traded at 92.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 90.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 91.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 91.6% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 92.0% |
Shutdown & Democratic Party is favored at 92.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shutdown & Democratic Party | 92¢ | 92.0% | +0.4 pts | $68.1K | 18.7% |
| Shutdown & Republican Party | 8¢ | 8.1% | -0.2 pts | $86.2K | 23.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 92¢ / ask 92¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$363.9K has been traded on this event in total, $14 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?). The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/). 2. Which party will win the House in 2026? This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 11,529 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 11,529 | $917 |
| Dearest-Agenda | Yes | 3,675 | $3.4K |
| Sugary-Concentration | Yes | 2,190 | $2.0K |
| Uneven-Wild | Yes | 2,000 | $1.8K |
| Loving-Most-Aside | Yes | 1,000 | $920 |
| Little-Gold | No | 854 | $68 |
| Rundown-Regard | No | 760 | $60 |
| Serpentine-Illusion | Yes | 755 | $695 |
| Flamboyant-Disability | Yes | 643 | $592 |
| Velvety-Burn | Yes | 619 | $570 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 7.7% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 02:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 90.5% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 04:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 7.3% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 04:02 PM ET | No | SELL | 7.6% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 04:01 PM ET | No | SELL | 7.5% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 04:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $25 |
| Oct 22, 04:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 92.2% | $18 |
| Oct 22, 04:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 91.5% | $69 |
| Oct 22, 12:51 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.7% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 12:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 91.2% | $18 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Shutdown & Democratic Party at 92.0%. Next is Shutdown & Republican Party at 8.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026?via=bro
$363.9K in total volume, with $14 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/.
Shutdown & Democratic Party, priced at 92.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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