Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 37.5% in Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...? — $79.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027
38%
A 37.5% price implies roughly a 38-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D −6.0 pts30D −24.0 pts
December 31, 202737.5%
December 31, 20268.5%
Bid
36¢
Ask
39¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 09, 2026: 28.0% – 75.5% · Opened at 44.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?
Category
AI, Math, Tech, Science, Anthropic, CMI, Millennium Prize, AI Achievements, AI Benchmarks
Scheduled end
December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$79.7K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$3.1K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027 — 37.5%
Resolution source
https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 37.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -6.0 pts; past month: -24.0 pts.

Since September 09, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 28.0% and 75.5%. It opened at 44.0% and last traded at 37.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202639.0%
Oct 16, 202638.5%
Oct 18, 202636.5%
Oct 19, 202637.0%
Oct 20, 202637.5%
Oct 22, 202637.5%
Oct 23, 202637.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2027 is favored at 37.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 202738¢37.5%-0.5 pts$6.9K8.6%
December 31, 20268¢8.5%—$21.1K26.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 36¢ / ask 39¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$79.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of Anthropic, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used Anthropic's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source: https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 444 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Enraged-SchnitzelNo444$277
Accurate-SpiritYes442$166
Enchanting-TextureNo410$256
Ragged-ThongsYes273$102
Opulent-RightNo234$146
Shameful-CinnamonYes200$75
Belated-GlueYes167$63
Hard-BoatYes117$44
Previous-CustomYes103$39
Fearful-CongressNo93$58

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $152 at 35.1%SELL No — $139 at 83.0%BUY No — $136 at 58.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 11:32 AM ETYesSELL7.0%$1
Oct 23, 11:32 AM ETYesSELL7.4%$8
Oct 22, 12:28 PM ETYesBUY9.0%$1
Oct 22, 11:15 AM ETYesSELL10.0%$7
Oct 22, 06:15 AM ETNoBUY88.0%$94
Oct 21, 09:24 PM ETNoSELL86.0%$28
Oct 21, 04:23 PM ETNoSELL86.0%$0
Oct 21, 02:29 PM ETYesSELL13.0%$4
Oct 21, 02:28 PM ETYesSELL14.2%$24
Oct 21, 02:28 PM ETNoBUY87.0%$17

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 37.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 8.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-announces-a-millennium-prize-solution-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...??

$79.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/.

What is the most likely outcome of Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2027, priced at 37.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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