As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 600B+ at 96.0% in Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets) — $527.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 600B+, is priced at 96.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.4 pts; past week: +1.0 pts; past month: +0.1 pts.
Since February 04, 2026, 600B+ has traded between 33.0% and 96.8%. It opened at 42.5% and last traded at 96.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.1% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.0% |
600B+ is favored at 96.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 600B+ | 96¢ | 96.0% | -0.4 pts | $63.3K | 12.0% |
| No IPO by December 31, 2027 | 3¢ | 3.0% | +0.1 pts | $48.9K | 9.3% |
| 400–600B | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $33.2K | 6.3% |
| 200–300B | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $32.1K | 6.1% |
| 300–400B | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $83.7K | 15.9% |
| <100B | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $177.6K | 33.7% |
| 100–200B | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $88.8K | 16.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 94¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$527.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 20,507 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 20,507 | $810 |
| Parallel-Guilty | Yes | 9,530 | $9.2K |
| Grumpy-Urn | Yes | 4,808 | $4.6K |
| Positive-Steam | No | 3,512 | $139 |
| 0x68a44260… | Yes | 2,748 | $2.6K |
| Tremendous-Divide | No | 1,894 | $75 |
| Cheery-Preparation | Yes | 1,606 | $1.5K |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 1,372 | $1.3K |
| Left-Peripheral | Yes | 1,063 | $1.0K |
| Pointed-Chap | Yes | 998 | $958 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 07:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $80 |
| Oct 20, 09:13 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.8% | $12 |
| Oct 20, 09:04 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.8% | $15 |
| Oct 20, 08:36 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $27 |
| Oct 16, 11:56 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.8% | $42 |
| Oct 16, 11:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $34 |
| Oct 16, 11:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $9 |
| Oct 15, 02:51 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.9% | $2 |
| Oct 14, 07:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $30 |
| Oct 14, 07:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $100 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 600B+ at 96.0%. Next is No IPO by December 31, 2027 at 3.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-119?via=bro
$527.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
600B+, priced at 96.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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