As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027 at 6.5% in Anthropic lab leak by...? — $157.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, June 30, 2027, is priced at 6.5%.
Since September 19, 2026, June 30, 2027 has traded between 6.5% and 10.5%. It opened at 10.5% and last traded at 6.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 6.5% |
June 30, 2027 is favored at 6.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $124.7K | 79.4% |
| December 31, 2026 | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $32.3K | 20.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$157.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required. Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,277 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Punctual-Sand | No | 2,277 | $2.1K |
| Accomplished-Refrigerator | Yes | 1,714 | $111 |
| Indelible-Wedge-Baggage | No | 1,064 | $995 |
| Attached-Schedule | Yes | 971 | $63 |
| Simple-Violation | No | 769 | $719 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 616 | $40 |
| Quizzical-Hire | Yes | 444 | $29 |
| Key-Sovereignty | No | 384 | $359 |
| Likable-Loading-Decryption | Yes | 276 | $18 |
| Fair-Visor | Yes | 273 | $18 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 10:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.2% | $74 |
| Oct 21, 10:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.8% | $13 |
| Oct 19, 05:25 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.3% | $7 |
| Oct 16, 05:16 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.2% | $16 |
| Oct 14, 05:26 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.7% | $12 |
| Oct 13, 05:33 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $2 |
| Oct 13, 03:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.7% | $1 |
| Oct 13, 02:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $119 |
| Oct 13, 08:32 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.7% | $73 |
| Oct 13, 08:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.7% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 6.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 1.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-lab-leak-by?via=bro
$157.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
June 30, 2027, priced at 6.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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