As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Microsoft at 76.0% in Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31? — $10.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Microsoft, is priced at 76.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: -9.5 pts; past month: -24.0 pts.
Since May 19, 2026, Microsoft has traded between 27.5% and 80.5%. It opened at 71.5% and last traded at 75.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 68.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 75.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 74.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 75.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 75.0% |
Microsoft is favored at 76.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | 76¢ | 76.0% | +1.5 pts | $10.9K | 100.0% |
| Anthropic + OpenAI | 24¢ | 24.0% | -1.5 pts | $10.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 18¢ (bid 15¢ / ask 33¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$10.9K has been traded on this event in total, $32 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Microsoft's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Microsoft" if Microsoft's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,000 shares of Anthropic + OpenAI .
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fabulous-Online | Anthropic + OpenAI | 3,000 | $720 |
| Ready-Jungle | Microsoft | 2,250 | $1.7K |
| Drab-Bustle | Microsoft | 553 | $420 |
| Complete-Osmosis | Anthropic + OpenAI | 249 | $60 |
| Those-Bird | Anthropic + OpenAI | 202 | $49 |
| Monumental-Union | Microsoft | 200 | $152 |
| Feminine-Decrease | Microsoft | 200 | $152 |
| Evil-Row | Microsoft | 152 | $115 |
| Celebrated-Improvement | Anthropic + OpenAI | 100 | $24 |
| Belated-Glue | Microsoft | 94 | $71 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:52 AM ET | Microsoft | BUY | 71.0% | $23 |
| Oct 22, 08:56 PM ET | Microsoft | SELL | 67.1% | $67 |
| Oct 22, 08:54 PM ET | Microsoft | SELL | 68.0% | $68 |
| Oct 22, 02:14 AM ET | Microsoft | BUY | 81.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 01:36 AM ET | Microsoft | BUY | 81.0% | $12 |
| Oct 21, 12:34 PM ET | Microsoft | SELL | 68.0% | $48 |
| Oct 18, 09:26 AM ET | Microsoft | BUY | 81.0% | $9 |
| Oct 18, 05:29 AM ET | Microsoft | BUY | 72.0% | $15 |
| Oct 17, 09:28 AM ET | Anthropic + OpenAI | SELL | 31.0% | $4 |
| Oct 16, 11:30 AM ET | Microsoft | SELL | 67.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Microsoft at 76.0%. Next is Anthropic + OpenAI at 24.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-openai-vs-microsoft-higher-valuation-on-december-31?via=bro
$10.9K in total volume, with $32 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Microsoft, priced at 76.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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