Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Anthropic at 93.0% in Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? — $99.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $22.
Leading outcome
Anthropic
93%
A 93.0% price implies roughly a 93-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.5 pts7D +2.0 pts30D +1.5 pts
Anthropic93.0%
OpenAI7.0%
Bid
92¢
Ask
94¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since May 19, 2026: 63.5% – 94.5% · Opened at 88.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
Category
Finance, Privates, OpenAI, Claude, llm, Anthropic, AI, Big Tech, Anthropic IPO, Recurring
Scheduled end
January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$99.5K
Volume (24h)
$22
Liquidity
$7.6K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
Anthropic — 93.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Anthropic, is priced at 93.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +2.0 pts; past month: +1.5 pts.

Since May 19, 2026, Anthropic has traded between 63.5% and 94.5%. It opened at 88.0% and last traded at 93.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202691.5%
Oct 18, 202691.5%
Oct 19, 202691.5%
Oct 20, 202691.5%
Oct 22, 202693.0%
Oct 23, 202693.5%
Oct 24, 202693.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Anthropic is favored at 93.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Anthropic93¢93.0%+0.5 pts$99.5K100.0%
OpenAI7¢7.0%-0.5 pts$99.5K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 92¢ / ask 94¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$99.5K has been traded on this event in total, $22 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for December 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 14,649 shares of OpenAI.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Somber-IceOpenAI14,649$1.0K
Attached-Example-AnesthesiologistAnthropic10,004$9.3K
Leafy-InterpreterOpenAI3,924$275
Fabulous-OnlineAnthropic3,403$3.2K
Delicious-ForestAnthropic2,500$2.3K
Graceful-BlowholeOpenAI1,920$134
Suburban-CellAnthropic1,658$1.5K
Compassionate-LawsuitAnthropic1,159$1.1K
Only-Hype-MidwifeOpenAI1,111$78
Willing-PurchaseAnthropic1,000$930

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Anthropic — $344 at 92.8%BUY Anthropic — $284 at 94.7%SELL Anthropic — $150 at 90.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 10:19 AM ETAnthropicSELL91.0%$12
Oct 24, 08:44 AM ETAnthropicSELL92.0%$8
Oct 23, 10:09 AM ETAnthropicSELL91.0%$9
Oct 23, 10:09 AM ETOpenAIBUY8.0%$3
Oct 23, 06:16 AM ETAnthropicBUY94.7%$284
Oct 22, 06:52 PM ETOpenAIBUY7.0%$4
Oct 22, 06:47 PM ETOpenAISELL6.0%$3
Oct 22, 06:19 PM ETOpenAISELL6.0%$3
Oct 22, 06:19 PM ETOpenAISELL6.0%$1
Oct 22, 06:19 PM ETOpenAISELL7.0%$3

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 93.0%. Next is OpenAI at 7.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-vs-openai-higher-valuation-on-december-31?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31??

$99.5K in total volume, with $22 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

Anthropic, priced at 93.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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