As of October 24, 2026, 07:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Anthropic at 93.0% in Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? — $99.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Anthropic, is priced at 93.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +2.0 pts; past month: +1.5 pts.
Since May 19, 2026, Anthropic has traded between 63.5% and 94.5%. It opened at 88.0% and last traded at 93.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 93.0% |
Anthropic is favored at 93.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 93¢ | 93.0% | +0.5 pts | $99.5K | 100.0% |
| OpenAI | 7¢ | 7.0% | -0.5 pts | $99.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 92¢ / ask 94¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$99.5K has been traded on this event in total, $22 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for December 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 14,649 shares of OpenAI.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Somber-Ice | OpenAI | 14,649 | $1.0K |
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist | Anthropic | 10,004 | $9.3K |
| Leafy-Interpreter | OpenAI | 3,924 | $275 |
| Fabulous-Online | Anthropic | 3,403 | $3.2K |
| Delicious-Forest | Anthropic | 2,500 | $2.3K |
| Graceful-Blowhole | OpenAI | 1,920 | $134 |
| Suburban-Cell | Anthropic | 1,658 | $1.5K |
| Compassionate-Lawsuit | Anthropic | 1,159 | $1.1K |
| Only-Hype-Midwife | OpenAI | 1,111 | $78 |
| Willing-Purchase | Anthropic | 1,000 | $930 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 10:19 AM ET | Anthropic | SELL | 91.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 08:44 AM ET | Anthropic | SELL | 92.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 10:09 AM ET | Anthropic | SELL | 91.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 10:09 AM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 8.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 06:16 AM ET | Anthropic | BUY | 94.7% | $284 |
| Oct 22, 06:52 PM ET | OpenAI | BUY | 7.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 06:47 PM ET | OpenAI | SELL | 6.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 06:19 PM ET | OpenAI | SELL | 6.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 06:19 PM ET | OpenAI | SELL | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 06:19 PM ET | OpenAI | SELL | 7.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Anthropic at 93.0%. Next is OpenAI at 7.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-vs-openai-higher-valuation-on-december-31?via=bro
$99.5K in total volume, with $22 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Anthropic, priced at 93.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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