As of October 24, 2026, 09:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 63.5% in Any G20 leader out in 2026? — $334 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 63.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +23.5 pts.
Since October 09, 2026, No has traded between 63.5% and 91.0%. It opened at 86.5% and last traded at 63.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 63.5% |
No is favored at 63.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 64¢ | 63.5% | — | $334 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 36¢ | 36.5% | — | $334 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 49¢ (bid 12¢ / ask 61¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$334 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any one of the specified individuals formally ceases to hold their specified office by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The specified individuals and their respective offices are: Cyril Ramaphosa (President of South Africa), Friedrich Merz (Federal Chancellor of Germany), Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (King of Saudi Arabia), Javier Milei (President of Argentina), Anthony Albanese (Prime Minister of Australia), Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (President of Brazil), Mark Carney (Prime Minister of Canada), Xi Jinping (President of China), Lee Jae-myung (President of South Korea), Donald Trump (President of the United States), Emmanuel Macron (President of France), Narendra Modi (Prime Minister of India), Sanae Takaichi (Prime Minister of Japan), Prabowo Subianto (President of Indonesia), Giorgia Meloni (President of the Council of Ministers of Italy), Claudia Sheinbaum (President of Mexico), Andy Burnham (Prime Minister of the United Kingdom), Vladimir Putin (President of Russia), Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (President of Turkey), and Ursula von der Leyen (President of the European Commission, European Union). Departure from any other office held by a specified individual will not qualify. The individual must formally cease to hold the specified office in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 203 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amusing-Good | No | 203 | $129 |
| Gummy-Network-Age | Yes | 80 | $29 |
| Pesky-Bicycle | Yes | 63 | $23 |
| Worthy-Storytelling | Yes | 44 | $16 |
| Agonizing-Discretion | Yes | 33 | $12 |
| Internal-Hail | No | 24 | $15 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 20 | $7 |
| Poor-Tavern | No | 20 | $13 |
| Personal-Bake | Yes | 17 | $6 |
| Golden-Chivalry | No | 8 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 12:24 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.9% | $10 |
| Oct 18, 09:07 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $2 |
| Oct 18, 09:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $4 |
| Oct 17, 05:19 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $5 |
| Oct 13, 09:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 04:29 PM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $16 |
| Oct 11, 03:09 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $9 |
| Oct 11, 01:08 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $12 |
| Oct 10, 11:50 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $17 |
| Oct 09, 03:20 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 63.5%. Next is Yes at 36.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/any-g20-leader-out-in-2026?via=bro
$334 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 63.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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