As of October 24, 2026, 08:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 11:59 PM at 99.3% in AP calls the House by...? — $17.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 11:59 PM, is priced at 99.3%.
Since October 22, 2026, December 31, 11:59 PM has traded between 99.1% and 99.3%. It opened at 99.1% and last traded at 99.3%.
December 31, 11:59 PM is favored at 99.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 11:59 PM | 99¢ | 99.3% | — | $1.1K | 6.6% |
| November 13, 11:59 PM | 98¢ | 97.7% | +0.1 pts | $1.1K | 6.4% |
| November 6, 11:59 PM | 97¢ | 97.2% | +0.6 pts | $2.2K | 12.7% |
| November 10, 11:59 PM | 97¢ | 97.2% | -0.5 pts | $808 | 4.7% |
| November 15, 11:59 PM | 97¢ | 97.0% | +0.2 pts | $603 | 3.5% |
| November 30, 11:59 PM | 97¢ | 96.9% | +0.2 pts | $441 | 2.6% |
| November 5, 11:59 PM | 92¢ | 91.5% | +0.5 pts | $2.9K | 17.0% |
| November 4, 11:59 PM | 87¢ | 87.0% | -0.5 pts | $3.5K | 20.5% |
| November 4, 3:59 AM | 76¢ | 76.0% | -5.5 pts | $2.2K | 12.9% |
| November 4, 12:59 AM | 68¢ | 68.0% | +22.5 pts | $431 | 2.5% |
| November 3, 11:59 PM | 50¢ | 50.0% | -2.5 pts | $1.7K | 9.8% |
| November 3, 10:59 PM | 33¢ | 33.0% | — | $102 | 0.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 99¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$17.0K has been traded on this event in total, $305 of it in the last 24 hours, across 12 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 03, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Associated Press has, by the specified date and time (ET), called control of the United States House of Representatives for the Congress that will convene following the midterm elections. Otherwise it will resolve to “No”. Control of the House of Representatives will be considered to have been called when the Associated Press has either 1) issued a call that House control has been determined, or 2) issued race calls declaring winners in at least 218 districts for candidates of the same party, with all such calls standing at the same time for 1 hour without retraction. Independents will not be considered members of a party for purposes of this count. Under condition 1, no subsequent withdrawal of a control call will be relevant to this market. Under condition 2, this market will remain open for one hour following the race call that brings a party’s standing calls to 218. If, within that hour, the Associated Press retracts any of those calls such that the party’s standing calls fall below 218, condition 2 will not be considered satisfied by that call. If no such retraction occurs within the hour, condition 2 will be considered satisfied as of the time of the 218th call, regardless of any later retraction. For resolution, the relevant time is the time of the 218th call, not the end of the one-hour period. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 303 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thorough-Neighbourhood | Yes | 303 | $301 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 178 | $1 |
| Woozy-Stepaunt | Yes | 128 | $127 |
| Fixed-Eaglet | Yes | 86 | $86 |
| Lasting-Integral | No | 54 | $0 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 54 | $0 |
| Worthy-Petitioner-Shark | No | 49 | $0 |
| Grumpy-Invader | No | 48 | $0 |
| Nonstop-Knitting | No | 40 | $0 |
| 0xef3d68cb… | No | 39 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:38 AM ET | No | BUY | 16.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 03:51 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 88.9% | $98 |
| Oct 24, 02:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 13.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 03:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 8.5% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 11:29 AM ET | No | SELL | 8.4% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 11:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 91.6% | $23 |
| Oct 23, 11:07 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 89.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 11:07 AM ET | No | SELL | 8.4% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 11:07 AM ET | No | SELL | 8.5% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 11:06 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 89.9% | $450 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 11:59 PM at 99.3%. Next is November 13, 11:59 PM at 97.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ap-calls-the-house-byptptpt?via=bro
$17.0K in total volume, with $305 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 03, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 11:59 PM, priced at 99.3% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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