Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

AP calls the House by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 11:59 PM at 99.3% in AP calls the House by...? — $17.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $305.
Leading outcome
December 31, 11:59 PM
99%
A 99.3% price implies roughly a 99-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
December 31, 11:59 PM99.3%
November 13, 11:59 PM97.7%
Bid
99¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 22, 2026: 99.1% – 99.3% · Opened at 99.1%

Market facts

Event data
Event
AP calls the House by...?
Category
midterm, Politics, US Election, house of representatives
Scheduled end
January 03, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$17.0K
Volume (24h)
$305
Liquidity
$91.3K
Markets
12
Leading outcome
December 31, 11:59 PM — 99.3%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 11:59 PM, is priced at 99.3%.

Since October 22, 2026, December 31, 11:59 PM has traded between 99.1% and 99.3%. It opened at 99.1% and last traded at 99.3%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 11:59 PM is favored at 99.3%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 11:59 PM99¢99.3%—$1.1K6.6%
November 13, 11:59 PM98¢97.7%+0.1 pts$1.1K6.4%
November 6, 11:59 PM97¢97.2%+0.6 pts$2.2K12.7%
November 10, 11:59 PM97¢97.2%-0.5 pts$8084.7%
November 15, 11:59 PM97¢97.0%+0.2 pts$6033.5%
November 30, 11:59 PM97¢96.9%+0.2 pts$4412.6%
November 5, 11:59 PM92¢91.5%+0.5 pts$2.9K17.0%
November 4, 11:59 PM87¢87.0%-0.5 pts$3.5K20.5%
November 4, 3:59 AM76¢76.0%-5.5 pts$2.2K12.9%
November 4, 12:59 AM68¢68.0%+22.5 pts$4312.5%
November 3, 11:59 PM50¢50.0%-2.5 pts$1.7K9.8%
November 3, 10:59 PM33¢33.0%—$1020.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 99¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$17.0K has been traded on this event in total, $305 of it in the last 24 hours, across 12 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 03, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Associated Press has, by the specified date and time (ET), called control of the United States House of Representatives for the Congress that will convene following the midterm elections. Otherwise it will resolve to “No”. Control of the House of Representatives will be considered to have been called when the Associated Press has either 1) issued a call that House control has been determined, or 2) issued race calls declaring winners in at least 218 districts for candidates of the same party, with all such calls standing at the same time for 1 hour without retraction. Independents will not be considered members of a party for purposes of this count. Under condition 1, no subsequent withdrawal of a control call will be relevant to this market. Under condition 2, this market will remain open for one hour following the race call that brings a party’s standing calls to 218. If, within that hour, the Associated Press retracts any of those calls such that the party’s standing calls fall below 218, condition 2 will not be considered satisfied by that call. If no such retraction occurs within the hour, condition 2 will be considered satisfied as of the time of the 218th call, regardless of any later retraction. For resolution, the relevant time is the time of the 218th call, not the end of the one-hour period. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 303 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Thorough-NeighbourhoodYes303$301
Belated-GlueNo178$1
Woozy-StepauntYes128$127
Fixed-EagletYes86$86
Lasting-IntegralNo54$0
Oddball-PoisonNo54$0
Worthy-Petitioner-SharkNo49$0
Grumpy-InvaderNo48$0
Nonstop-KnittingNo40$0
0xef3d68cb…No39$0

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $450 at 89.9%BUY Yes — $209 at 83.7%BUY Yes — $156 at 85.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 11:38 AM ETNoBUY16.0%$8
Oct 24, 03:51 AM ETYesSELL88.9%$98
Oct 24, 02:31 AM ETNoBUY13.0%$1
Oct 23, 03:37 PM ETNoSELL8.5%$1
Oct 23, 11:29 AM ETNoSELL8.4%$0
Oct 23, 11:18 AM ETYesBUY91.6%$23
Oct 23, 11:07 AM ETYesBUY89.0%$9
Oct 23, 11:07 AM ETNoSELL8.4%$1
Oct 23, 11:07 AM ETNoSELL8.5%$1
Oct 23, 11:06 AM ETYesBUY89.9%$450

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of AP calls the House by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 11:59 PM at 99.3%. Next is November 13, 11:59 PM at 97.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ap-calls-the-house-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on AP calls the House by...??

$17.0K in total volume, with $305 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 markets.

When does AP calls the House by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 03, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of AP calls the House by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 11:59 PM, priced at 99.3% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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