As of October 24, 2026, 06:35 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $500M at 70.0% in Arc FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $82.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, $500M, is priced at 70.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts; past month: +2.5 pts.
Since May 12, 2026, $500M has traded between 39.0% and 93.5%. It opened at 61.5% and last traded at 70.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 70.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 70.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 70.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 70.0% |
$500M is favored at 70.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500M | 70¢ | 70.0% | — | $30.6K | 37.0% |
| $800M | 70¢ | 69.5% | +1.0 pts | $15.7K | 19.0% |
| $1B | 60¢ | 60.0% | +0.5 pts | $9.4K | 11.3% |
| $2B | 51¢ | 51.0% | -5.0 pts | $7.3K | 8.8% |
| $3B | 48¢ | 48.0% | -0.5 pts | $6.6K | 7.9% |
| $4B | 38¢ | 38.5% | +5.0 pts | $3.6K | 4.3% |
| $6B | 33¢ | 33.0% | +1.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| $8B | 24¢ | 24.5% | +2.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| $5B | 22¢ | 22.5% | +3.0 pts | $5.8K | 7.0% |
| $7B | 21¢ | 20.8% | +0.4 pts | $1.2K | 1.5% |
| $9B | 10¢ | 9.5% | -18.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| $15B | 8¢ | 7.5% | -26.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| $10B | 6¢ | 5.8% | +0.3 pts | $629 | 0.8% |
| $20B | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $2.0K | 2.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 69¢ / ask 71¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$82.8K has been traded on this event in total, $590 of it in the last 24 hours, across 14 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2028, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arc's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Arc (https://x.com/arc) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution source: https://x.com/arc
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,987 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glamorous-Visor | No | 1,987 | $596 |
| Agonizing-Signature | No | 1,311 | $393 |
| Mundane-Crinoline | Yes | 1,237 | $866 |
| First-Sphere | Yes | 1,118 | $783 |
| Private-Oleo | No | 1,000 | $300 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 706 | $494 |
| Trim-Human | Yes | 529 | $370 |
| Hard-To-Find-Motherinlaw | Yes | 500 | $350 |
| Rowdy-Innocent | No | 500 | $150 |
| Sure-Footed-Pseudoscience | No | 428 | $128 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 04:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 61.0% | $31 |
| Oct 23, 03:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 29.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 11:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 29.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 09:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 70.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 09:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 70.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 09:35 AM ET | No | SELL | 30.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 04:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 39.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 04:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 38.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 04:03 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 62.0% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 04:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 38.0% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is $500M at 70.0%. Next is $800M at 69.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/arc-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch?via=bro
$82.8K in total volume, with $590 traded in the last 24 hours across 14 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2028, 12:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://x.com/arc.
$500M, priced at 70.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
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