As of October 24, 2026, 09:11 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 83.5% in Will Ares Capital (ARCC) beat quarterly earnings? — $969 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 83.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts; past week: -7.0 pts.
Since October 16, 2026, No has traded between 31.0% and 83.5%. It opened at 31.0% and last traded at 83.5%.
No is favored at 83.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 84¢ | 83.5% | +2.0 pts | $969 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 16¢ | 16.5% | -2.0 pts | $969 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 16¢ / ask 17¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$969 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 09:00 AM ET.
As of market creation, Ares Capital is estimated to release earnings on October 27, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Ares Capital’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.49 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ares Capital reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.49 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Ares Capital releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ARCC/earnings
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 292 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Awesome-Availability | No | 292 | $244 |
| 0x049ca21b… | Yes | 83 | $14 |
| Amazing-Antelope-Shakedown | Yes | 70 | $12 |
| Plump-Implementation | Yes | 56 | $9 |
| Bumpy-Conscience | No | 51 | $42 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 47 | $8 |
| Weary-Account | Yes | 30 | $5 |
| Apt-Antecedent | Yes | 20 | $3 |
| Hideous-Racer | Yes | 20 | $3 |
| Deadly-Antechamber | Yes | 11 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 05:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $21 |
| Oct 20, 05:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.0% | $6 |
| Oct 19, 08:30 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.0% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 12:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $4 |
| Oct 18, 12:38 AM ET | No | SELL | 75.0% | $15 |
| Oct 18, 12:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.0% | $5 |
| Oct 18, 12:06 AM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $16 |
| Oct 18, 12:06 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.0% | $5 |
| Oct 17, 09:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $20 |
| Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 76.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 83.5%. Next is Yes at 16.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/arcc-quarterly-earnings-nongaap-eps-10-27-2026-0pt49?via=bro
$969 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 09:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ARCC/earnings.
No, priced at 83.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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