As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Manuel Enrique Vera Paredes at 86.3% in Arequipa Mayoral Election Winner — $27.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Manuel Enrique Vera Paredes, is priced at 86.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: +1.6 pts; past month: +33.8 pts.
Since August 12, 2026, Manuel Enrique Vera Paredes has traded between 4.5% and 98.0%. It opened at 21.5% and last traded at 86.3%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 87.6% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 85.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 88.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 89.3% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 86.6% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 86.3% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 86.3% |
Manuel Enrique Vera Paredes is favored at 86.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Enrique Vera Paredes | 86¢ | 86.3% | -0.1 pts | $5.8K | 20.8% |
| Person A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Alfredo Willy Benavente Godoy | 13¢ | 12.6% | +6.2 pts | $2.2K | 8.0% |
| Deyanira Yajaira Salazar Rivera | 9¢ | 8.8% | -3.6 pts | $529 | 1.9% |
| Ricardo Alfredo Ramírez del Villar Llosa | 4¢ | 4.0% | -0.1 pts | $9.0K | 32.4% |
| Lorenzo Filomeno Colque Arias | 4¢ | 3.9% | +0.1 pts | $517 | 1.9% |
| Andrés Eliseo Risueño Portugal | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $587 | 2.1% |
| Isidro Flores Sosa | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $719 | 2.6% |
| Ruccy Judith Oscco Polar | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $525 | 1.9% |
| Elizabeth Genesis Amado Quispe | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $324 | 1.2% |
| Renzo Alonso Salas Herrera | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.6K | 9.4% |
| Lizbeth Zavala Vilca | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $468 | 1.7% |
| Juan Roberto Muñoz Pinto | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $372 | 1.3% |
| Yamel Deyson Romero Peralta | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $353 | 1.3% |
| José Miguel Briones Silva | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $602 | 2.2% |
| Elmer Ángel Acero Bruna | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $637 | 2.3% |
| Mauricio Cáceres Cáceres | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $581 | 2.1% |
| Javier Antonio Onofre Ccama | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $409 | 1.5% |
| Jorge Luis Reyes Luján Martínez | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $599 | 2.2% |
| Tomás Job Delgado Zúñiga | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $555 | 2.0% |
| Alfredo Álvarez Díaz | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $348 | 1.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 24¢ (bid 74¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$27.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 47 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 04, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 Arequipa, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Provincial Municipality of Arequipa as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If this election is annulled or the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Resolution source: https://jne.gob.pe
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 724 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 724 | $99 |
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 348 | $300 |
| Immaterial-Secretariat | Yes | 310 | $267 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 246 | $34 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 202 | $175 |
| Tragic-Member | No | 188 | $26 |
| Spiffy-Consist | Yes | 167 | $144 |
| Dull-Universe | Yes | 59 | $51 |
| Alarming-Carload | Yes | 51 | $44 |
| Turbulent-Nation | Yes | 36 | $31 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 05:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 87.5% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 09:51 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 98.3% | $4 |
| Oct 19, 05:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 7.9% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 05:08 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.1% | $35 |
| Oct 17, 06:14 PM ET | No | SELL | 1.3% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 03:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 13.2% | $4 |
| Oct 15, 06:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 2.4% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 02:51 PM ET | No | SELL | 7.7% | $3 |
| Oct 13, 02:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 1.3% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 01:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 98.8% | $50 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Manuel Enrique Vera Paredes at 86.3%. Next is Person A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/arequipa-mayoral-election-winner-20260811165718694?via=bro
$27.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 47 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 04, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://jne.gob.pe.
Manuel Enrique Vera Paredes, priced at 86.3% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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