As of October 24, 2026, 08:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Axel Kicillof at 59.0% in Argentina Peronist Presidential Nominee — $3.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Axel Kicillof, is priced at 59.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +5.5 pts; past week: +9.0 pts.
Since October 12, 2026, Axel Kicillof has traded between 50.0% and 59.0%. It opened at 51.0% and last traded at 59.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 55.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 59.0% |
Axel Kicillof is favored at 59.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axel Kicillof | 59¢ | 59.0% | +5.5 pts | $1.7K | 49.4% |
| Person A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AA | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AB | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AC | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AD | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AE | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AF | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AG | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AH | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AI | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AJ | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AK | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AL | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person AM | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Sergio Massa | 21¢ | 21.0% | -4.0 pts | $1.4K | 39.5% |
| Cristina Fernández de Kirchner | 5¢ | 5.0% | -0.5 pts | $393 | 11.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 57¢ / ask 61¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.5K has been traded on this event in total, $384 of it in the last 24 hours, across 43 markets.
This market is scheduled to end August 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Argentina's next presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the individual who becomes the presidential candidate of the main Peronist electoral coalition for the 2027 Argentine presidential election. For the purposes of this market, the “main Peronist electoral coalition” is the political party or electoral alliance that includes the Partido Justicialista (PJ) at the national level (as of October 2026, Fuerza Patria). If the PJ contests the presidential election on its own rather than as part of an alliance, the PJ’s presidential candidate will qualify. An individual will be considered the nominee once their candidacy for President has been officially registered by the main Peronist electoral coalition for the first round of the 2027 presidential election and approved (oficializada) by the competent Argentine electoral court. If a primary election is held, an individual who wins the coalition’s presidential primary will qualify only once their candidacy for the first round has been approved. If no presidential candidacy of the main Peronist electoral coalition has been approved for the first round by October 24, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Any replacement of the nominee after their candidacy has been approved will not change the resolution of this market. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 265 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gummy-Movement | Yes | 265 | $157 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 212 | $87 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 173 | $102 |
| Dull-Cheese | No | 100 | $41 |
| Incomplete-Attenuation-Grove | No | 69 | $28 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 40 | $24 |
| Golden-Panpipe | No | 40 | $16 |
| Descriptive-Servitude-Stud | No | 40 | $16 |
| Magnificent-Planula | No | 34 | $14 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 33 | $13 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 39.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 02:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 77.1% | $147 |
| Oct 24, 11:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 56.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 11:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 56.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 11:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 42.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 11:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 11:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 41.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 08:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 08:55 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 08:55 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $91 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Axel Kicillof at 59.0%. Next is Person A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/argentina-peronist-presidential-nominee?via=bro
$3.5K in total volume, with $384 traded in the last 24 hours across 43 markets.
The market is scheduled to end August 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php.
Axel Kicillof, priced at 59.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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