Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Argentina Peronist Presidential Nominee

As of October 24, 2026, 08:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Axel Kicillof at 59.0% in Argentina Peronist Presidential Nominee — $3.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $384.
Leading outcome
Axel Kicillof
59%
A 59.0% price implies roughly a 59-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +5.5 pts7D +9.0 pts
Axel Kicillof59.0%
Person A50.0%
Bid
57¢
Ask
61¢
Spread
4¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 12, 2026: 50.0% – 59.0% · Opened at 51.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Argentina Peronist Presidential Nominee
Category
Politics, Argentina, Elections, Global Elections, Argentina Election, International Election Props, World Elections
Scheduled end
August 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$3.5K
Volume (24h)
$384
Liquidity
$21.6K
Markets
43
Leading outcome
Axel Kicillof — 59.0%
Resolution source
https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Axel Kicillof, is priced at 59.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +5.5 pts; past week: +9.0 pts.

Since October 12, 2026, Axel Kicillof has traded between 50.0% and 59.0%. It opened at 51.0% and last traded at 59.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202655.5%
Oct 16, 202650.0%
Oct 18, 202650.5%
Oct 19, 202653.5%
Oct 20, 202656.5%
Oct 23, 202653.5%
Oct 24, 202659.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Axel Kicillof is favored at 59.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Axel Kicillof59¢59.0%+5.5 pts$1.7K49.4%
Person A50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person B50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person C50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person D50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person E50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person F50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person G50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person H50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person I50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person J50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person K50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person L50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person M50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person N50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person O50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person P50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person Q50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person R50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person S50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person T50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person U50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person V50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person W50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person X50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person Y50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person Z50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AA50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AB50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AC50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AD50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AE50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AF50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AG50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AH50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AI50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AJ50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AK50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AL50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AM50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Other50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Sergio Massa21¢21.0%-4.0 pts$1.4K39.5%
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner5¢5.0%-0.5 pts$39311.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 57¢ / ask 61¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$3.5K has been traded on this event in total, $384 of it in the last 24 hours, across 43 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end August 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

Argentina's next presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the individual who becomes the presidential candidate of the main Peronist electoral coalition for the 2027 Argentine presidential election. For the purposes of this market, the “main Peronist electoral coalition” is the political party or electoral alliance that includes the Partido Justicialista (PJ) at the national level (as of October 2026, Fuerza Patria). If the PJ contests the presidential election on its own rather than as part of an alliance, the PJ’s presidential candidate will qualify. An individual will be considered the nominee once their candidacy for President has been officially registered by the main Peronist electoral coalition for the first round of the 2027 presidential election and approved (oficializada) by the competent Argentine electoral court. If a primary election is held, an individual who wins the coalition’s presidential primary will qualify only once their candidacy for the first round has been approved. If no presidential candidacy of the main Peronist electoral coalition has been approved for the first round by October 24, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Any replacement of the nominee after their candidacy has been approved will not change the resolution of this market. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 265 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Gummy-MovementYes265$157
Belated-GlueNo212$87
Known-UseYes173$102
Dull-CheeseNo100$41
Incomplete-Attenuation-GroveNo69$28
Evil-RowYes40$24
Golden-PanpipeNo40$16
Descriptive-Servitude-StudNo40$16
Magnificent-PlanulaNo34$14
0xa5ef39c3…No33$13

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $147 at 77.1%SELL No — $91 at 93.0%BUY No — $74 at 92.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:23 PM ETNoSELL39.0%$3
Oct 24, 02:56 PM ETNoBUY77.1%$147
Oct 24, 11:17 AM ETYesSELL56.0%$3
Oct 24, 11:17 AM ETYesSELL56.0%$0
Oct 24, 11:17 AM ETNoBUY42.0%$2
Oct 24, 11:17 AM ETNoBUY43.0%$2
Oct 24, 11:17 AM ETNoBUY41.0%$15
Oct 24, 08:58 AM ETNoSELL92.0%$5
Oct 24, 08:55 AM ETYesSELL1.0%$0
Oct 24, 08:55 AM ETNoSELL93.0%$91

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Argentina Peronist Presidential Nominee?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Axel Kicillof at 59.0%. Next is Person A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/argentina-peronist-presidential-nominee?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Argentina Peronist Presidential Nominee?

$3.5K in total volume, with $384 traded in the last 24 hours across 43 markets.

When does Argentina Peronist Presidential Nominee end?

The market is scheduled to end August 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php.

What is the most likely outcome of Argentina Peronist Presidential Nominee, according to Polymarket traders?

Axel Kicillof, priced at 59.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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