As of October 24, 2026, 08:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Javier Milei at 62.0% in Argentina Presidential Election First Round Winner — $14.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Javier Milei, is priced at 62.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.0 pts; past week: +4.0 pts.
Since October 02, 2026, Javier Milei has traded between 41.5% and 62.0%. It opened at 47.5% and last traded at 62.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 61.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 62.0% |
Javier Milei is favored at 62.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 62¢ | 62.0% | +2.0 pts | $6.1K | 42.4% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Axel Kicillof | 22¢ | 21.5% | — | $2.5K | 17.5% |
| Patricia Bullrich | 11¢ | 10.8% | -0.9 pts | $315 | 2.2% |
| Karina Milei | 6¢ | 6.1% | — | $211 | 1.5% |
| Guillermo Moreno | 4¢ | 4.0% | — | $252 | 1.7% |
| Myriam Bregman | 4¢ | 3.6% | — | $211 | 1.5% |
| Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro | 3¢ | 3.0% | -0.6 pts | $191 | 1.3% |
| Sergio Massa | 3¢ | 2.9% | -0.1 pts | $3.0K | 20.5% |
| Juan Schiaretti | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $129 | 0.9% |
| Facundo Manes | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $152 | 1.1% |
| Cristina Fernández de Kirchner | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $189 | 1.3% |
| Esteban Bullrich | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $138 | 1.0% |
| Juan Grabois | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $135 | 0.9% |
| Victoria Villarruel | 0¢ | 0.2% | +0.1 pts | $128 | 0.9% |
| Mauricio Macri | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $128 | 0.9% |
| Daniel Hadad | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $151 | 1.0% |
| Dante Gebel | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $337 | 2.3% |
| Nicolás del Caño | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $154 | 1.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 60¢ / ask 64¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$14.4K has been traded on this event in total, $33 of it in the last 24 hours, across 45 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 24, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Argentine government, specifically the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,292 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thin-Beggar | Yes | 2,292 | $1.4K |
| Measly-Gelatin | No | 1,956 | $743 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 236 | $90 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 201 | $76 |
| Known-Use | No | 147 | $56 |
| Alienated-Horst | Yes | 140 | $87 |
| Plump-Implementation | No | 45 | $17 |
| Incompatible-Mixer-Felony | Yes | 38 | $24 |
| Husky-Embossing | Yes | 34 | $21 |
| Remarkable-Underpass | No | 33 | $13 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $20 |
| Oct 23, 12:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 12:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $12 |
| Oct 22, 11:56 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 58.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 06:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 40.0% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 03:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 41.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 03:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.4% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 03:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 41.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 03:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.6% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 03:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Javier Milei at 62.0%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/argentina-presidential-election-first-round-winner?via=bro
$14.4K in total volume, with $33 traded in the last 24 hours across 45 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 24, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Javier Milei, priced at 62.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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