As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Javier Milei at 47.0% in Argentina Presidential Election Winner — $1.11M traded so far.
The leading outcome, Javier Milei, is priced at 47.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.5 pts; past month: -7.5 pts.
Since May 01, 2026, Javier Milei has traded between 42.5% and 61.5%. It opened at 42.5% and last traded at 47.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 48.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 46.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 47.0% |
Javier Milei is favored at 47.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 47¢ | 47.0% | — | $277.4K | 25.0% |
| Axel Kicillof | 32¢ | 31.5% | — | $144.4K | 13.0% |
| Sergio Massa | 12¢ | 11.8% | +0.4 pts | $103.6K | 9.3% |
| Patricia Bullrich | 4¢ | 4.4% | -0.1 pts | $35.4K | 3.2% |
| Daniel Hadad | 2¢ | 2.2% | -0.4 pts | $31.7K | 2.9% |
| Myriam Bregman | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $63.3K | 5.7% |
| Dante Gebel | 1¢ | 1.0% | — | $53.8K | 4.9% |
| Cristina Fernández de Kirchner | 1¢ | 0.9% | -0.1 pts | $23.4K | 2.1% |
| Karina Milei | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $11.1K | 1.0% |
| Victoria Villarruel | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $44.8K | 4.0% |
| Máximo Kirchner | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $19.1K | 1.7% |
| Lionel Messi | 0¢ | 0.4% | +0.1 pts | $20.8K | 1.9% |
| Alberto Fernández | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $336 | 0.0% |
| Guillermo Moreno | 0¢ | 0.3% | -0.1 pts | $26.3K | 2.4% |
| Mauricio Macri | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $55.3K | 5.0% |
| Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro | 0¢ | 0.2% | +0.1 pts | $15.6K | 1.4% |
| Juan Grabois | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $47.8K | 4.3% |
| Esteban Bullrich | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $44.9K | 4.0% |
| Juan Schiaretti | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $49.4K | 4.5% |
| Facundo Manes | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $40.5K | 3.6% |
| Nicolás del Caño | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $140 | 0.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 46¢ / ask 48¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.11M has been traded on this event in total, $18.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 64 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 24, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Resolution source: https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 51,304 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 51,304 | $27.2K |
| Musty-Accountant | No | 41,140 | $21.8K |
| 0x5e9ffe74… | Yes | 17,135 | $8.1K |
| Tedious-Accordance | No | 17,021 | $9.0K |
| Fabulous-Online | Yes | 13,000 | $6.1K |
| Murky-Hail | Yes | 10,602 | $5.0K |
| Same-Occupation-Makeup | Yes | 6,614 | $3.1K |
| Appropriate-Antennae-Layer | Yes | 5,873 | $2.8K |
| Silly-Cattle | Yes | 5,816 | $2.7K |
| Pertinent-Arrangement | Yes | 3,501 | $1.6K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.0% | $46 |
| Oct 24, 05:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.0% | $24 |
| Oct 24, 05:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.0% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 05:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 04:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.0% | $39 |
| Oct 24, 04:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.0% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 04:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.0% | $32 |
| Oct 24, 04:28 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 46.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:28 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 31.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:28 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.9% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Javier Milei at 47.0%. Next is Axel Kicillof at 31.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/argentina-presidential-election-winner?via=bro
$1.11M in total volume, with $18.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 64 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 24, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php.
Javier Milei, priced at 47.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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