As of October 24, 2026, 08:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 52.0% in Arizona passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting? — $4.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 52.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts; past week: -12.0 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, No has traded between 34.0% and 60.5%. It opened at 34.0% and last traded at 48.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 47.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 44.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 45.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 48.0% |
No is favored at 52.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 52¢ | 52.0% | +4.0 pts | $4.9K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 48¢ | 48.0% | -4.0 pts | $4.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 47¢ / ask 49¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.9K has been traded on this event in total, $139 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Arizona Proposition 144 (HCR 2001) is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would amend the Arizona Constitution to specify that only citizens of the United States may vote and register to vote in Arizona elections and require voters to present government-issued proof of identity to cast a ballot, whether in person or by mail, among other items. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,135 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treasured-Liner-Cheddar | No | 1,135 | $590 |
| Dense-Whip | Yes | 625 | $300 |
| Liquid-Argument | Yes | 615 | $295 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | No | 500 | $260 |
| Unfit-Hardboard | Yes | 280 | $134 |
| Pure-Threat | No | 145 | $75 |
| Cultivated-Diesel | Yes | 106 | $51 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 72 | $34 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 43 | $22 |
| Present-Knickers-Desire | Yes | 40 | $19 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 52.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 07:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 48.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:42 AM ET | No | SELL | 49.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 06:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 47.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 06:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 53.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 53.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 06:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 52.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 06:38 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 48.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 06:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 45.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 02:58 PM ET | No | SELL | 50.0% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 52.0%. Next is Yes at 48.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-passes-ballot-measure-banning-noncitizens-from-voting?via=bro
$4.9K in total volume, with $139 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 52.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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