As of October 24, 2026, 08:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 62.5% in Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access? — $3.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 62.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts; past week: +2.0 pts; past month: -7.5 pts.
Since July 08, 2026, Yes has traded between 34.5% and 77.0%. It opened at 34.5% and last traded at 62.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 75.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 62.0% |
Yes is favored at 62.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 62¢ | 62.5% | -2.0 pts | $3.8K | 100.0% |
| No | 38¢ | 37.5% | +2.0 pts | $3.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 61¢ / ask 64¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.8K has been traded on this event in total, $40 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
Resolution source: https://azsos.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 820 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treasured-Liner-Cheddar | Yes | 820 | $512 |
| Cultivated-Diesel | No | 456 | $171 |
| Appropriate-Antennae-Layer | No | 212 | $80 |
| Expensive-Arrow-Nightclub | No | 200 | $75 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 178 | $67 |
| Valuable-Eddy | Yes | 152 | $95 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 67 | $42 |
| Embarrassed-Hill-Fold | No | 40 | $15 |
| Joyous-Catalyst | No | 37 | $14 |
| Tricky-Usher | Yes | 31 | $19 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 38.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 38.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 62.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 12:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 35.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 07:36 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 62.0% | $12 |
| Oct 22, 07:36 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $12 |
| Oct 22, 05:00 AM ET | No | SELL | 33.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 05:00 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 41.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 01:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 36.0% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 12:28 AM ET | No | SELL | 37.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 62.5%. Next is No at 37.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-passes-ballot-measure-restricting-transgender-school-and-athletic-access-20260708183800539?via=bro
$3.8K in total volume, with $40 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://azsos.gov/.
Yes, priced at 62.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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