As of October 24, 2026, 06:31 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Democrat at 79.5% in Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner — $5.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Democrat, is priced at 79.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts; past week: -1.5 pts; past month: -2.0 pts.
Since July 23, 2026, Democrat has traded between 76.0% and 86.0%. It opened at 82.5% and last traded at 79.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 79.5% |
Democrat is favored at 79.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 80¢ | 79.5% | -4.0 pts | $3.5K | 69.5% |
| Option A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Option B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Option C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Option D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Option E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Option F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Option G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Option H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Option I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Option J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Republican | 20¢ | 19.5% | +4.0 pts | $1.5K | 30.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 79¢ / ask 80¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$5.0K has been traded on this event in total, $1.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 13 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona Secretary of State election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 449 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural-Enterprise | Yes | 449 | $357 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 364 | $75 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 349 | $71 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 108 | $85 |
| Cultivated-Diesel | Yes | 72 | $57 |
| Odd-Relish | Yes | 42 | $33 |
| Yummy-Winter | Yes | 40 | $32 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 40 | $32 |
| Fuzzy-Draft | No | 36 | $7 |
| 0x28a66540… | No | 27 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 78.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 03:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 78.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 03:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 78.0% | $39 |
| Oct 24, 03:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 01:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 77.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 01:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 78.0% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 01:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 77.6% | $31 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Democrat at 79.5%. Next is Option A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-secretary-of-state-election-winner-20260722170356601?via=bro
$5.0K in total volume, with $1.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 13 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Democrat, priced at 79.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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