As of October 24, 2026, 08:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 900K-975K at 47.0% in Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout — $45.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 900K-975K, is priced at 47.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +12.0 pts; past month: +11.5 pts.
Since August 18, 2026, 900K-975K has traded between 17.0% and 73.0%. It opened at 44.0% and last traded at 47.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 47.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 47.0% |
900K-975K is favored at 47.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 900K-975K | 47¢ | 47.0% | — | $15.8K | 35.0% |
| 975K-1.05M | 22¢ | 22.5% | -0.5 pts | $8.0K | 17.8% |
| 825K-900K | 21¢ | 21.0% | +0.5 pts | $5.7K | 12.7% |
| 1.05M+ | 5¢ | 4.8% | +0.9 pts | $5.8K | 12.8% |
| 750K-825K | 3¢ | 2.6% | +0.1 pts | $3.3K | 7.3% |
| 675K-750K | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $2.4K | 5.3% |
| 600K-675K | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $1.7K | 3.8% |
| <600K | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.2 pts | $2.4K | 5.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 46¢ / ask 48¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$45.1K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,690 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whimsical-Terminal | Yes | 4,690 | $2.2K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,146 | $1.1K |
| Agitated-Mobster | No | 1,679 | $890 |
| Fat-Fat-Hourglass | Yes | 644 | $302 |
| Joyous-Catalyst | No | 516 | $273 |
| Winged-Layer | No | 514 | $272 |
| Cheery-Science | No | 200 | $106 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 91 | $48 |
| Partial-Adrenalin | No | 86 | $46 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 71 | $33 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 08:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 48.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 01:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 86.7% | $62 |
| Oct 23, 01:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.7% | $24 |
| Oct 23, 05:51 AM ET | No | BUY | 51.0% | $24 |
| Oct 23, 05:51 AM ET | No | BUY | 54.0% | $11 |
| Oct 22, 07:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 52.0% | $10 |
| Oct 22, 05:58 PM ET | No | SELL | 49.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 08:45 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 48.0% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 08:33 AM ET | No | SELL | 52.0% | $10 |
| Oct 22, 07:07 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 49.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 900K-975K at 47.0%. Next is 975K-1.05M at 22.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/arkansas-senate-election-turnout?via=bro
$45.1K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
900K-975K, priced at 47.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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