As of October 24, 2026, 09:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara: Luca Castelnuovo at 74.5% in Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara — $134 traded so far.
Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara: Luca Castelnuovo is favored at 74.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara: Luca Castelnuovo | 74¢ | 74.5% | — | $134 | 100.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 2 O/U 8.5: Under | 52¢ | 52.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 2 O/U 9.5: Under | 52¢ | 52.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 2 O/U 10.5: Under | 52¢ | 52.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 1 O/U 8.5: Under | 52¢ | 51.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 1 O/U 9.5: Under | 52¢ | 51.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 1 O/U 10.5: Under | 52¢ | 51.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Match O/U 21.5: Under | 51¢ | 51.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Match O/U 22.5: Under | 51¢ | 51.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Match O/U 23.5: Under | 51¢ | 51.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set Handicap +/-1.5: Yusuke Kusuhara | 50¢ | 50.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set Handicap +/-1.5: Luca Castelnuovo | 50¢ | 50.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 1 Winner: Luca Castelnuovo | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 1 Winner: Yusuke Kusuhara | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 2 Winner: Luca Castelnuovo | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 2 Winner: Yusuke Kusuhara | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Total Sets: O/U 2.5: Over 2.5 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Total Sets: O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set Handicap +/-1.5: Luca Castelnuovo | 50¢ | 49.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set Handicap +/-1.5: Yusuke Kusuhara | 50¢ | 49.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Match O/U 21.5: Over | 49¢ | 49.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Match O/U 22.5: Over | 49¢ | 49.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Match O/U 23.5: Over | 49¢ | 49.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Completed Match | 48¢ | 48.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 1 O/U 8.5: Over | 48¢ | 48.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 1 O/U 9.5: Over | 48¢ | 48.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 1 O/U 10.5: Over | 48¢ | 48.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 2 O/U 8.5: Over | 48¢ | 48.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 2 O/U 9.5: Over | 48¢ | 48.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 2 O/U 10.5: Over | 48¢ | 48.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara: Yusuke Kusuhara | 26¢ | 25.5% | — | $134 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 73¢ / ask 76¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$134 has been traded on this event in total, $134 of it in the last 24 hours, across 16 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 03:10 AM ET.
This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Castelnuovo and Yusuke Kusuhara in the Ningbo, China, Qualifying, originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 4:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Castelnuovo' if Luca Castelnuovo advances against Yusuke Kusuhara. This market will resolve to 'Yusuke Kusuhara' if Yusuke Kusuhara advances against Luca Castelnuovo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 91 shares of Luca Castelnuovo.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loose-Associate | Luca Castelnuovo | 91 | $67 |
| Enchanting-Organisation | Yusuke Kusuhara | 46 | $12 |
| Major-Assessment | Yusuke Kusuhara | 20 | $5 |
| Frightened-Traditionalism-Optimist | Yusuke Kusuhara | 18 | $5 |
| Unkempt-Herring-Complicity | Yusuke Kusuhara | 6 | $2 |
| Elementary-Variable | Luca Castelnuovo | 5 | $4 |
| Trivial-Player | Yusuke Kusuhara | 5 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:18 PM ET | Luca Castelnuovo | BUY | 77.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 01:33 PM ET | Yusuke Kusuhara | SELL | 18.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 01:30 PM ET | Luca Castelnuovo | BUY | 82.0% | $69 |
| Oct 24, 01:28 PM ET | Luca Castelnuovo | BUY | 83.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara: Luca Castelnuovo at 74.5%. Next is Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara Set 2 O/U 8.5: Under at 52.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-casteln-kusuhar-2026-10-25?via=bro
$134 in total volume, with $134 traded in the last 24 hours across 16 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 03:10 AM ET. It resolves based on https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
Ningbo: Luca Castelnuovo vs Yusuke Kusuhara: Luca Castelnuovo, priced at 74.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.