As of October 24, 2026, 09:24 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set Handicap +/-1.5: Alex Molcan at 75.0% in Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan — $413 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set Handicap +/-1.5: Alex Molcan, is priced at 75.0%.
Since October 24, 2026, Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set Handicap +/-1.5: Alex Molcan has traded between 50.5% and 75.0%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 75.0%.
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set Handicap +/-1.5: Alex Molcan is favored at 75.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set Handicap +/-1.5: Alex Molcan | 75¢ | 75.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 1 O/U 10.5: Under | 70¢ | 70.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Total Sets: O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 | 62¢ | 62.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set Handicap +/-1.5: Adrian Mannarino | 60¢ | 60.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 1 O/U 8.5: Under | 60¢ | 59.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan: Alex Molcan | 58¢ | 58.5% | — | $413 | 100.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 1 Winner: Alex Molcan | 58¢ | 58.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Match O/U 23.5: Under | 56¢ | 56.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Match O/U 21.5: Over | 56¢ | 55.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Match O/U 22.5: Under | 52¢ | 52.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 2 O/U 8.5: Under | 52¢ | 52.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 2 O/U 9.5: Under | 52¢ | 52.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 2 O/U 10.5: Under | 52¢ | 52.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 1 O/U 9.5: Under | 52¢ | 51.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Completed Match | 50¢ | 50.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 2 Winner: Adrian Mannarino | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 2 Winner: Alex Molcan | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 1 O/U 9.5: Over | 48¢ | 48.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 2 O/U 8.5: Over | 48¢ | 48.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 2 O/U 9.5: Over | 48¢ | 48.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 2 O/U 10.5: Over | 48¢ | 48.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Match O/U 22.5: Over | 48¢ | 47.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Match O/U 21.5: Under | 44¢ | 44.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Match O/U 23.5: Over | 44¢ | 43.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 1 Winner: Adrian Mannarino | 42¢ | 42.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan: Adrian Mannarino | 42¢ | 41.5% | — | $413 | 100.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 1 O/U 8.5: Over | 40¢ | 40.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set Handicap +/-1.5: Alex Molcan | 40¢ | 39.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Total Sets: O/U 2.5: Over 2.5 | 38¢ | 37.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 1 O/U 10.5: Over | 30¢ | 29.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set Handicap +/-1.5: Adrian Mannarino | 25¢ | 25.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 23¢ / ask 27¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$413 has been traded on this event in total, $413 of it in the last 24 hours, across 16 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 08:30 AM ET.
This market refers to the tennis match between Adrian Mannarino and Alex Molcan in the Erste Bank Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Adrian Mannarino" if Adrian Mannarino wins by 2 or more sets than Alex Molcan, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Alex Molcan." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Adrian Mannarino can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Alex Molcan." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:55 PM ET | Adrian Mannarino | BUY | 42.0% | $58 |
| Oct 24, 08:37 PM ET | Adrian Mannarino | BUY | 42.0% | $35 |
| Oct 24, 08:35 PM ET | Alex Molcan | BUY | 56.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 08:35 PM ET | Alex Molcan | BUY | 56.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 08:34 PM ET | Alex Molcan | BUY | 56.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 08:34 PM ET | Alex Molcan | BUY | 56.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 08:33 PM ET | Alex Molcan | BUY | 53.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 08:32 PM ET | Adrian Mannarino | BUY | 48.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 08:32 PM ET | Adrian Mannarino | BUY | 48.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 08:32 PM ET | Adrian Mannarino | BUY | 48.0% | $27 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set Handicap +/-1.5: Alex Molcan at 75.0%. Next is Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set 1 O/U 10.5: Under at 70.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-mannari-molcan-2026-10-25?via=bro
$413 in total volume, with $413 traded in the last 24 hours across 16 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 08:30 AM ET. It resolves based on https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex Molcan Set Handicap +/-1.5: Alex Molcan, priced at 75.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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