As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 10.5: Under at 65.5% in Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley — $409 traded so far.
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 10.5: Under is favored at 65.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 10.5: Under | 66¢ | 65.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set Handicap +/-1.5: Lorenzo Sonego | 65¢ | 65.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Total Sets: O/U 2.5: Under 2.5 | 60¢ | 60.0% | — | $2 | 0.6% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 9.5: Over | 60¢ | 59.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley: Jacob Fearnley | 56¢ | 56.5% | — | $407 | 99.4% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 8.5: Under | 56¢ | 56.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 Winner: Jacob Fearnley | 55¢ | 54.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Match O/U 22.5: Over | 54¢ | 54.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Match O/U 23.5: Under | 54¢ | 54.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Completed Match | 52¢ | 52.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 O/U 8.5: Under | 52¢ | 52.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 O/U 9.5: Under | 52¢ | 52.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 O/U 10.5: Under | 52¢ | 52.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Match O/U 21.5: Over | 52¢ | 52.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Game Spread +/-1.5: Jacob Fearnley | 52¢ | 52.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 Winner: Lorenzo Sonego | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 Winner: Jacob Fearnley | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 O/U 8.5: Over | 48¢ | 48.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 O/U 9.5: Over | 48¢ | 48.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 O/U 10.5: Over | 48¢ | 48.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Match O/U 21.5: Under | 48¢ | 48.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Game Spread +/-1.5: Lorenzo Sonego | 48¢ | 48.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Match O/U 22.5: Under | 46¢ | 46.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Match O/U 23.5: Over | 46¢ | 46.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 Winner: Lorenzo Sonego | 46¢ | 45.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley: Lorenzo Sonego | 44¢ | 43.5% | — | $407 | 99.4% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 8.5: Over | 44¢ | 43.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 9.5: Under | 40¢ | 40.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Total Sets: O/U 2.5: Over 2.5 | 40¢ | 40.0% | — | $2 | 0.6% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set Handicap +/-1.5: Jacob Fearnley | 35¢ | 35.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 10.5: Over | 34¢ | 34.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 33¢ / ask 36¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$409 has been traded on this event in total, $409 of it in the last 24 hours, across 16 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 07:00 AM ET.
This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Sonego and Jacob Fearnley in the Erste Bank Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for October 25, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:06 PM ET | Jacob Fearnley | BUY | 57.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 08:54 PM ET | No | BUY | 6.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 06:47 PM ET | Over 2.5 | BUY | 41.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:39 PM ET | Jacob Fearnley | BUY | 57.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:39 PM ET | Lorenzo Sonego | BUY | 44.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:34 PM ET | Jacob Fearnley | BUY | 57.0% | $24 |
| Oct 24, 03:25 PM ET | Lorenzo Sonego | BUY | 43.8% | $60 |
| Oct 24, 02:43 PM ET | Jacob Fearnley | BUY | 58.0% | $115 |
| Oct 24, 02:02 PM ET | Jacob Fearnley | BUY | 57.0% | $13 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 10.5: Under at 65.5%. Next is Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set Handicap +/-1.5: Lorenzo Sonego at 65.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-sonego-fearnle-2026-10-25?via=bro
$409 in total volume, with $409 traded in the last 24 hours across 16 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 07:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
Erste Bank Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 10.5: Under, priced at 65.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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