As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 25-29 at 77.0% in Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October? — $79.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 25-29, is priced at 77.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +14.5 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, 25-29 has traded between 29.5% and 77.0%. It opened at 29.5% and last traded at 77.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 77.0% |
25-29 is favored at 77.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25-29 | 77¢ | 77.0% | — | $23.0K | 28.9% |
| 30-34 | 16¢ | 15.5% | -0.5 pts | $24.6K | 30.9% |
| 20-24 | 5¢ | 5.0% | -1.0 pts | $15.1K | 19.0% |
| <20 | 1¢ | 1.4% | +0.1 pts | $9.7K | 12.2% |
| 35+ | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $7.2K | 9.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 76¢ / ask 78¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$79.5K has been traded on this event in total, $200 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Resolution source: IMF PortWatch
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,611 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,611 | $370 |
| Shy-Note | Yes | 897 | $691 |
| Unsightly-Young | No | 713 | $164 |
| Advanced-Mortgage | Yes | 480 | $370 |
| Lonely-Pronunciation-Jewellery | Yes | 415 | $320 |
| Steep-Visa | Yes | 316 | $243 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 261 | $60 |
| Obvious-Eyebrow | Yes | 250 | $193 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 238 | $55 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 219 | $168 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 78.0% | $100 |
| Oct 24, 07:44 AM ET | No | SELL | 22.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:34 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 77.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:38 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 12:00 AM ET | No | SELL | 23.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 10:59 PM ET | No | SELL | 22.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 07:36 PM ET | No | SELL | 22.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 05:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 05:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 85.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 25-29 at 77.0%. Next is 30-34 at 15.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-bab-el-mandeb-strait-end-of-october?via=bro
$79.5K in total volume, with $200 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on IMF PortWatch.
25-29, priced at 77.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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