Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 25-29 at 77.0% in Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October? — $79.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $200.
Leading outcome
25-29
77%
A 77.0% price implies roughly a 77-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +14.5 pts
25-2977.0%
30-3415.5%
Bid
76¢
Ask
78¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since October 01, 2026: 29.5% – 77.0% · Opened at 29.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
Category
Oil, Iran, Hormuz, Houthis, Geopolitics, Bab el-Mandeb, Strait of Hormuz
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$79.5K
Volume (24h)
$200
Liquidity
$137.5K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
25-29 — 77.0%
Resolution source
IMF PortWatch

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 25-29, is priced at 77.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +14.5 pts.

Since October 01, 2026, 25-29 has traded between 29.5% and 77.0%. It opened at 29.5% and last traded at 77.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202656.5%
Oct 17, 202662.5%
Oct 18, 202657.5%
Oct 19, 202659.0%
Oct 20, 202660.0%
Oct 22, 202671.0%
Oct 23, 202677.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

25-29 is favored at 77.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
25-2977¢77.0%—$23.0K28.9%
30-3416¢15.5%-0.5 pts$24.6K30.9%
20-245¢5.0%-1.0 pts$15.1K19.0%
<201¢1.4%+0.1 pts$9.7K12.2%
35+0¢0.2%—$7.2K9.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 76¢ / ask 78¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$79.5K has been traded on this event in total, $200 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.

Resolution source: IMF PortWatch

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,611 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No1,611$370
Shy-NoteYes897$691
Unsightly-YoungNo713$164
Advanced-MortgageYes480$370
Lonely-Pronunciation-JewelleryYes415$320
Steep-VisaYes316$243
Perfumed-MoatNo261$60
Obvious-EyebrowYes250$193
Belated-GlueNo238$55
Sparse-CookieYes219$168

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $463 at 90.0%BUY No — $458 at 85.9%BUY No — $401 at 88.5%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:43 PM ETYesBUY78.0%$100
Oct 24, 07:44 AM ETNoSELL22.0%$0
Oct 24, 06:34 AM ETNoBUY85.0%$1
Oct 24, 06:33 AM ETYesBUY77.0%$1
Oct 24, 02:38 AM ETYesBUY5.0%$0
Oct 24, 12:00 AM ETNoSELL23.0%$8
Oct 23, 10:59 PM ETNoSELL22.0%$5
Oct 23, 07:36 PM ETNoSELL22.0%$1
Oct 23, 05:40 PM ETYesSELL14.0%$1
Oct 23, 05:30 PM ETNoSELL85.0%$2

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 25-29 at 77.0%. Next is 30-34 at 15.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-bab-el-mandeb-strait-end-of-october?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October??

$79.5K in total volume, with $200 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on IMF PortWatch.

What is the most likely outcome of Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?, according to Polymarket traders?

25-29, priced at 77.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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